PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Everton 1–2 Luton Town · Premier League

Everton

LLDLW
1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Luton Town won 1–2.

Shots
239
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
2.90.89
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Luton Town beat Everton 2–1. Recorded in this match (Everton – Luton Town): shots 23–9, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 2.9–0.89, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Luton Town have a visible away split

weak

Luton Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match12 shots/match14.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Luton Town show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Luton Town's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsEverton · Luton Town12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEvertonLuton TownBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match12 shots/match14.4 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match15.7 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots9 shotsEverton 23 shots, Luton Town 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsEverton 5 shots, Luton Town 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.9 xG0.89 xGEverton 2.9 xG, Luton Town 0.89 xG
  • Possession68%32%Everton 68%, Luton Town 32%
  • Corners3 corners6 cornersEverton 3 corners, Luton Town 6 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls10 foulsEverton 8 fouls, Luton Town 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Carlton Morris · Luton Town · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAshley Young · Everton · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDwight McNeil · Everton · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJacob Brown · Luton Town · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJames Garner · Everton · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDwight McNeil · Everton · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarvelous Nakamba · Luton Town · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Onana · Everton · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Onana · Everton · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChiedozie Ogbene · Luton Town · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMads Andersen · Luton Town · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDwight McNeil · Everton · 3′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 62′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJames Garner · Everton · 10′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJames Garner · Everton · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedIdrissa Gana Gueye · Everton · 12′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 24′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 29′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBeto · Everton · 69′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTom Lockyer · Luton Town · 20′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBeto · Everton · 86′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBeto · Everton · 75′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedBeto · Everton · 77′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 5′ · 0.17 xG · on targetCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 32′ · 0.20 xG · goalTom Lockyer · Luton Town · 24′ · 0.37 xG · goalAbdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 41′ · 0.38 xG · on targetAmadou Onana · Everton · 41′ · 0.39 xG · on targetJames Garner · Everton · 37′ · 0.58 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 41′ · 0.94 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Everton: 23 shots, 4 on target, 3.63 xG. Luton Town: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.94 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 41′Tom Lockyer · Luton Town · 24′Carlton Morris · Luton Town · 32′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 3.63 xG · Luton Town 0.94 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Everton favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Luton Town in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Everton7 matchesLuton Town6 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/60.83 goals/match
1.71 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/62 goals/match
1.78 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/61.26 xG/match
15.4 shots/match ▲Shots7/612 shots/match
5.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/62.17 shots/match
45.7% ●Possession7/635.2%
5.29 corners/matchCorners7/6● 6.33 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls7/611.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Sept 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsEvertonLuton Town
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required