Premier League · 2023Sat, 23 Sept 2023, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brentford

DWDDL

1–3Full-time recap

Everton

LLLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brentford	Everton
Shots	12 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.03 xG/match	1.9 xG/match▲
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	1 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Brentford: 12 shots, 2 on target, 1.03 xG. Everton: 18 shots, 6 on target, 1.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 1.03 xG · Everton 1.91 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

weak

Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	0.83 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Brentford

1Draws

1Everton

11 Mar 2023Everton — Brentford · Premier League1–0

27 Aug 2022Brentford — Everton · Premier League1–1

15 May 2022Everton — Brentford · Premier League2–3

28 Nov 2021Brentford — Everton · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Everton in 3 · 4 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/60.83 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.67 goals/match

1.93 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61.59 xG/match

1.33 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/61.47 xG/match

14 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/614.2 shots/match

13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲11.8 shots/match

4.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲5.17 shots/match

4.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/64.17 shots/match

49.5%●Possessionseason · 6/642%

4.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/6●5.67 corners/match

5.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲4.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/611.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%

83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/633%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford47.5

Everton22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford48.3

Everton48.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford51.7

Everton62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford47.5

Everton92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford20

Everton75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford25

Everton52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford33.1

Everton63.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford6 matchesEverton6 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match

1.93 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.59 xG/match

14 shots/matchShots6/614.2 shots/match

4.33 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲5.17 shots/match

49.5%●Possession6/642%

4.17 corners/matchCorners6/6●5.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls6/611.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford4 matchesEverton3 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/3▲1.67 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/32.33 goals/match

1.78 xG/matchExpected goals4/31.71 xG/match

14 shots/matchShots4/314.3 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target4/3▲4.67 shots/match

52%●Possession4/346%

4.25 corners/matchCorners4/3●5.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls4/312.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Sept 2023, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4