PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 16 Sept 2023, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastle UnitedBrentford
Shots9 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Expected goals1.44 xG/match▲0.5 xG/match
Possession56%●44%
Corners8 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Harvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 37′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKieran Trippier · Newcastle United · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAaron Hickey · Brentford · 4′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 72′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 11′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSven Botman · Newcastle United · 28′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCallum Wilson · Newcastle United · 38′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 84′ · 0.11 xG · on targetCallum Wilson · Newcastle United · 31′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 28′ · 0.29 xG · on targetCallum Wilson · Newcastle United · 64′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Newcastle United: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.50 xG. Brentford: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.50 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Callum Wilson · Newcastle United · 64′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 1.50 xG · Brentford 0.50 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Newcastle United have a visible home split

weak

Newcastle United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match13 shots/match14.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Newcastle United
1Draws
0Brentford
Brentford — Newcastle United · Premier League1–2
Newcastle United — Brentford · Premier League5–1
Brentford — Newcastle United · Premier League0–2
Newcastle United — Brentford · Premier League3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 4 · 6 too close

1.6 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/51.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.67 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 5/5▲2.11 xG/match
1.09 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 5/51.21 xG/match
13 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/5▲14.4 shots/match
13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 5/512.8 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 5/54.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/5▲4 shots/match
50.8%●Possessionseason · 5/548%
4.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/5●4.8 corners/match
5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/55.4 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/510.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/520%
80%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United67.5
Brentford47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United53.3
Brentford52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United60.8
Brentford72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United27.5
Brentford60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United92.5
Brentford35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United27.5
Brentford37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United55
Brentford42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United5 matchesBrentford5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.67 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.11 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
50.8%●Possession5/548%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/5●4.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United3 matchesBrentford2 matches
2.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/2—
1 goals/matchGoals allowed3/2—
2.28 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—
16.3 shots/matchShots3/2—
7.67 shots/matchShots on target3/2—
56.3%Possession3/2—
6.33 corners/matchCorners3/2—
—Cards0/0—
12 fouls/matchFouls3/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Sept 2023, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastle UnitedBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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