PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Manchester City 2–0 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Manchester City won 2–0.

Shots
710
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.331.03
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Manchester City beat Nottingham Forest 2–0. Recorded in this match (Manchester City – Nottingham Forest): shots 7–10, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.33–1.03, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Manchester City have a visible home split

weak

Manchester City's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.33 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season17.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.33 shots/match17.3 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsManchester City · Nottingham Forest10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match10.3 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against6.83 shots/match13 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

66.2% ●PossessionManchester City · Nottingham Forest36.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 29.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession66.2%36.5%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots10 shotsManchester City 7 shots, Nottingham Forest 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsManchester City 4 shots, Nottingham Forest 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.33 xG1.03 xGManchester City 1.33 xG, Nottingham Forest 1.03 xG
  • Possession57%43%Manchester City 57%, Nottingham Forest 43%
  • Corners6 corners6 cornersManchester City 6 corners, Nottingham Forest 6 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls17 foulsManchester City 5 fouls, Nottingham Forest 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Anthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 71′ · 0.03 xG · on targetWilly Boly · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 50′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOrel Mangala · Nottingham Forest · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 75′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDivock Origi · Nottingham Forest · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 26′ · 0.07 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 7′ · 0.10 xG · goalJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 3′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 21′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 14′ · 0.14 xG · goalJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 31′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedTaiwo Awoniyi · Nottingham Forest · 58′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 78′ · 0.57 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester City: 7 shots, 4 on target, 1.33 xG. Nottingham Forest: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.99 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Phil Foden · Manchester City · 7′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 14′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.33 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.99 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Manchester City
1Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Manchester City · Premier League1–1
Manchester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League6–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Manchester City favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Manchester City6 matchesNottingham Forest6 matches
2.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/61.17 goals/match
0.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.5 goals/match
2.32 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.05 xG/match
17.3 shots/match ▲Shots6/610.3 shots/match
7.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/63.33 shots/match
66.2% ●Possession6/636.5%
6.83 corners/match ●Corners6/63.83 corners/match
8.5 fouls/matchFouls6/611.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Sept 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsManchester CityNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headManchester City — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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