PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Nottingham Forest 1–1 Burnley · Premier League

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nottingham Forest and Burnley drew 1–1.

Shots
1410
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
0.710.55
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nottingham Forest and Burnley drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Burnley): shots 14–10, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 0.71–0.55, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Burnley have recorded the higher season possession share.

35.2%PossessionNottingham Forest · Burnley● 47.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestBurnleyBaseline
Possession35.2%47.8%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots10 shotsNottingham Forest 14 shots, Burnley 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsNottingham Forest 4 shots, Burnley 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.71 xG0.55 xGNottingham Forest 0.71 xG, Burnley 0.55 xG
  • Possession46%54%Nottingham Forest 46%, Burnley 54%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersNottingham Forest 5 corners, Burnley 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls10 foulsNottingham Forest 16 fouls, Burnley 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Charlie Taylor · Burnley · 51′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLyle Foster · Burnley · 4′ · 0.02 xG · on targetScott McKenna · Nottingham Forest · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOrel Mangala · Nottingham Forest · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCallum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 61′ · 0.02 xG · goalMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCallum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 29′ · 0.03 xG · on targetOla Aina · Nottingham Forest · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAmeen Al-Dakhil · Burnley · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMike Trésor · Burnley · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Sangaré · Nottingham Forest · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 41′ · 0.06 xG · goalZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 50′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCallum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 16′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 65′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJosh Brownhill · Burnley · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTaiwo Awoniyi · Nottingham Forest · 14′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedOrel Mangala · Nottingham Forest · 55′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAnass Zaroury · Burnley · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLyle Foster · Burnley · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 57′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 14 shots, 4 on target, 0.70 xG. Burnley: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.54 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Callum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 61′Zeki Amdouni · Burnley · 41′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.70 xG · Burnley 0.54 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Burnley in 0 · 11 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest5 matchesBurnley4 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/41 goal/match
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/43 goals/match
1.05 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/40.74 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots5/410.3 shots/match
3.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/42.5 shots/match
35.2%Possession5/4● 47.8%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/4● 5.25 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/412 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 18 Sept 2023, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestBurnley
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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