Premier League · 2023Sun, 17 Sept 2023, 15:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Everton

LLLD

0–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Everton	Arsenal
Shots	8 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.34 xG/match	1.02 xG/match▲
Possession	26%	74%●
Corners	1 corners/match	11 corners/match●
Fouls	12 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Everton: 8 shots, 1 on target, 0.34 xG. Arsenal: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 0.34 xG · Arsenal 1.03 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.8%PossessionEverton · Arsenal●66.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 24.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Arsenal	Baseline
Possession	41.8%	66.2%	49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Everton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsEverton · Arsenal15.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Arsenal	Baseline
Shots	13.4 shots/match	15.6 shots/match	14.2 shots/match
Shots against	11.8 shots/match	9.2 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6 corners/matchCornersEverton · Arsenal●9.4 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Arsenal	Baseline
Corners	6 corners/match	9.4 corners/match	5.25 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Everton

0Draws

2Arsenal

1 Mar 2023Arsenal — Everton · Premier League4–0

4 Feb 2023Everton — Arsenal · Premier League1–0

22 May 2022Arsenal — Everton · Premier League5–1

6 Dec 2021Everton — Arsenal · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 11 · 2 too close

0.4 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/5▲1.8 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/5▲0.8 goals/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 5/5▲1.87 xG/match

1.56 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 5/5▲0.81 xG/match

13.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/5▲15.6 shots/match

11.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 5/5▲9.2 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/5▲6 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/5▲2 shots/match

41.8%Possessionseason · 5/5●66.2%

6 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/5●9.4 corners/match

5.2 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 5/5▲2.2 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/59.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/5▲40%

20%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/5▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton22.5

Arsenal87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton35

Arsenal72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton56.7

Arsenal93.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton82.5

Arsenal22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton65

Arsenal10

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton62.5

Arsenal97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton57.5

Arsenal64.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Everton5 matchesArsenal5 matches

0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.87 xG/match

13.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.6 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match

41.8%Possession5/5●66.2%

6 corners/matchCorners5/5●9.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Everton3 matchesArsenal2 matches

0 goals/matchGoals scored3/2—

1 goals/matchGoals allowed3/2—

1.47 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

14 shots/matchShots3/2—

5.67 shots/matchShots on target3/2—

38%Possession3/2—

6 corners/matchCorners3/2—

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples5 / 5home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Sept 2023, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4