PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Tue, 3 Oct 2023, 18:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

Burnley

LLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLuton TownBurnley
Shots18 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.34 xG/match▲1.11 xG/match
Possession49%51%●
Corners7 corners/match●6 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Luca Koleosho · Burnley · 47′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJay Rodriguez · Burnley · 81′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPelly Ruddock Mpanzu · Luton Town · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJacob Brown · Luton Town · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJosh Brownhill · Burnley · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuca Koleosho · Burnley · 47′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlfie Doughty · Luton Town · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTahith Chong · Luton Town · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJay Rodriguez · Burnley · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPelly Ruddock Mpanzu · Luton Town · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJacob Bruun Larsen · Burnley · 85′ · 0.03 xG · goalTom Lockyer · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLyle Foster · Burnley · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJosh Cullen · Burnley · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJosh Brownhill · Burnley · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuca Koleosho · Burnley · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTom Lockyer · Luton Town · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJosh Brownhill · Burnley · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedReece Burke · Luton Town · 64′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 49′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedChiedozie Ogbene · Luton Town · 33′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedElijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJacob Brown · Luton Town · 64′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 73′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedElijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 84′ · 0.12 xG · goalZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 29′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedChiedozie Ogbene · Luton Town · 51′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 21′ · 0.20 xG · on targetJacob Brown · Luton Town · 50′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedLyle Foster · Burnley · 45′ · 0.43 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Luton Town: 18 shots, 2 on target, 1.32 xG. Burnley: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Elijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 84′Lyle Foster · Burnley · 45′Jacob Bruun Larsen · Burnley · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Luton Town 1.32 xG · Burnley 1.09 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Luton Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Luton Town, Burnley. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Luton Town have a visible home split

weak

Luton Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18 shots/match12.9 shots/match14.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Luton Town, Burnley.

3.19 days▲Rest daysLuton Town · Burnley3.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLuton TownBurnleyBaseline
Rest days3.19 days3.19 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

weak

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Luton Town
1Draws
1Burnley
Luton Town — Burnley · Championship0–1
Burnley — Luton Town · Championship1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Luton Town favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Burnley in 1 · 5 too close

0.86 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/70.86 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72.29 goals/match
1.27 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/70.83 xG/match
1.84 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/71.89 xG/match
12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/710.7 shots/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/716.7 shots/match
2.29 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲2.86 shots/match
5.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/76.29 shots/match
37.1%Possessionseason · 7/7●50.1%
6.43 corners/match●Cornersseason · 7/75.57 corners/match
4.86 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/75.29 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/710.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/70%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Luton Town5
Burnley47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Luton Town21.7
Burnley15.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Luton Town26.7
Burnley15.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Luton Town97.5
Burnley7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Luton Town67.5
Burnley32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Luton Town72.5
Burnley62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Luton Town45.6
Burnley30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Luton Town7 matchesBurnley7 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/70.86 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.29 goals/match
1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals7/70.83 xG/match
12.9 shots/match▲Shots7/710.7 shots/match
2.29 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲2.86 shots/match
37.1%Possession7/7●50.1%
6.43 corners/match●Corners7/75.57 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls7/710.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Luton Town3 matchesBurnley3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/31 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1.33 goals/match
1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.77 xG/match
18 shots/match▲Shots3/310.7 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲3 shots/match
48%Possession3/3●50.7%
8.67 corners/match●Corners3/34.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/310.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 3 Oct 2023, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLuton TownBurnley
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match