Premier League · 2023Mon, 2 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fulham

LDLWD

0–2Full-time recap

Chelsea

LWLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fulham	Chelsea
Shots	10 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.09 xG/match	1.7 xG/match▲
Possession	56%●	44%
Corners	8 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fulham: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.11 xG. Chelsea: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fulham 1.11 xG · Chelsea 1.71 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Fulham show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.43 shots/match▲ShotsFulham · Chelsea14.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Fulham	Chelsea	Baseline
Shots	9.43 shots/match	14.6 shots/match	14.6 shots/match
Shots against	12.4 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Fulham have a visible home split

weak

Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.43 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	9.43 shots/match	14.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.1%PossessionFulham · Chelsea●63.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Fulham	Chelsea	Baseline
Possession	51.1%	63.7%	50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Fulham

1Draws

0Chelsea

3 Feb 2023Chelsea — Fulham · Premier League0–0

12 Jan 2023Fulham — Chelsea · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 9 · 4 too close

0.71 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1 goals/match

1.71 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.86 goals/match

0.94 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲1.9 xG/match

2.17 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.07 xG/match

9.43 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲14.6 shots/match

12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲11.6 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲4.57 shots/match

6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.57 shots/match

51.1%Possessionseason · 7/7●63.7%

4.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/7●5.57 corners/match

4.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲4.43 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/711.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

43%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/743%

57%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham57.5

Chelsea92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham10.8

Chelsea44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham43.3

Chelsea82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham2.5

Chelsea12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham17.5

Chelsea62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham37.5

Chelsea65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham18.8

Chelsea55.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fulham7 matchesChelsea7 matches

0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1 goals/match

1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match

0.94 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.9 xG/match

9.43 shots/matchShots7/7▲14.6 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.57 shots/match

51.1%Possession7/7●63.7%

4.71 corners/matchCorners7/7●5.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls7/711.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fulham3 matchesChelsea3 matches

0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲1 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1 goals/match

0.84 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲2.01 xG/match

11 shots/matchShots3/3▲14 shots/match

2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲4.67 shots/match

63%●Possession3/361.7%

6.33 corners/match●Corners3/35.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/313.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.25 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 2 Oct 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Fulham show a distinct attacking-volume record

Fulham have a visible home split

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Team comparison

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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