Premier League · 2023Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Burnley

LDLLW

1–4Full-time recap

Chelsea

WLDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Burnley	Chelsea
Shots	10 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.76 xG/match	1.86 xG/match▲
Possession	38%	62%●
Corners	7 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Burnley: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.66 xG. Chelsea: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Burnley 0.66 xG · Chelsea 0.44 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Burnley. A second useful context is: Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Burnley.

3.81 days▲Rest daysBurnley · Chelsea4.79 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Burnley	Chelsea	Baseline
Rest days	3.81 days	4.79 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsBurnley · Chelsea13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Burnley	Chelsea	Baseline
Shots	10.6 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	14 shots/match
Shots against	15.8 shots/match	11.4 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.6%PossessionBurnley · Chelsea●63.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Burnley	Chelsea	Baseline
Possession	48.6%	63.5%	48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Burnley

1Draws

1Chelsea

5 Mar 2022Burnley — Chelsea · Premier League0–4

6 Nov 2021Chelsea — Burnley · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 10 · 3 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.38 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲0.88 goals/match

0.82 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.89 xG/match

1.89 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.03 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲13.9 shots/match

15.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲11.4 shots/match

2.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲4.63 shots/match

6.13 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲3.5 shots/match

48.6%Possessionseason · 8/8●63.5%

5.75 corners/match●Cornersseason · 8/85.25 corners/match

5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲4.75 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲38%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/863%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley47.5

Chelsea92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley13.3

Chelsea50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley17.5

Chelsea83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley12.5

Chelsea7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley30

Chelsea45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley67.5

Chelsea45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley29.4

Chelsea46.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Burnley8 matchesChelsea8 matches

0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.38 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲0.88 goals/match

0.82 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.89 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots8/8▲13.9 shots/match

2.88 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.63 shots/match

48.6%Possession8/8●63.5%

5.75 corners/match●Corners8/85.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Burnley5 matchesChelsea4 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/4▲1.75 goals/match

3.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/4▲1 goals/match

0.85 xG/matchExpected goals5/4▲1.98 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots5/4▲12.8 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/4▲4.75 shots/match

47.4%Possession5/4●61.8%

6.6 corners/match●Corners5/45 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls5/412.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.79 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Recent scheduling adds useful context

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Team comparison

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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