PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Burnley 1–4 Chelsea · Premier League

Burnley

LDLLW
1–4Historical match

Chelsea

WLDLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Chelsea won 1–4.

Shots
109
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.761.86
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chelsea beat Burnley 4–1. Recorded in this match (Burnley – Chelsea): shots 10–9, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.76–1.86, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Burnley.

3.81 days ▲Rest daysBurnley · Chelsea4.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBurnleyChelseaBaseline
Rest days3.81 days4.79 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match ▲ShotsBurnley · Chelsea13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyChelseaBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match13.9 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against15.8 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.6%PossessionBurnley · Chelsea● 63.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyChelseaBaseline
Possession48.6%63.5%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots9 shotsBurnley 10 shots, Chelsea 9 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsBurnley 3 shots, Chelsea 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.76 xG1.86 xGBurnley 0.76 xG, Chelsea 1.86 xG
  • Possession38%62%Burnley 38%, Chelsea 62%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersBurnley 7 corners, Chelsea 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls8 foulsBurnley 11 fouls, Chelsea 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Wilson Odobert · Burnley · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuca Koleosho · Burnley · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCharlie Taylor · Burnley · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Taylor · Burnley · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSander Berge · Burnley · 81′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWilson Odobert · Burnley · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 14′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedArmando Broja · Chelsea · 44′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJacob Bruun Larsen · Burnley · 80′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 58′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLyle Foster · Burnley · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 37′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMike Trésor · Burnley · 22′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Burnley: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.66 xG. Chelsea: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.44 xG. · 4 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Burnley 0.66 xG · Chelsea 0.44 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Burnley
1Draws
1Chelsea
Burnley — Chelsea · Premier League0–4
Chelsea — Burnley · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Burnley favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Chelsea in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Burnley8 matchesChelsea8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.38 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 0.88 goals/match
0.82 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.89 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 13.9 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 4.63 shots/match
48.6%Possession8/8● 63.5%
5.75 corners/match ●Corners8/85.25 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBurnleyChelsea
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headBurnley — Chelsea
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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