Premier League · 2023Sat, 30 Sept 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Bournemouth

LLDDL

0–4Full-time recap

Arsenal

WDWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bournemouth	Arsenal
Shots	8 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.65 xG/match	3.43 xG/match▲
Possession	42%	58%●
Corners	6 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Bournemouth: 8 shots, 1 on target, 0.65 xG. Arsenal: 15 shots, 8 on target, 3.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 0.65 xG · Arsenal 3.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Arsenal15.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Bournemouth	Arsenal	Baseline
Shots	11.9 shots/match	15.1 shots/match	14.4 shots/match
Shots against	17.4 shots/match	9.57 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.1%PossessionBournemouth · Arsenal●62.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Bournemouth	Arsenal	Baseline
Possession	42.1%	62.3%	49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	0.71 goals/match	1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bournemouth

0Draws

2Arsenal

4 Mar 2023Arsenal — Bournemouth · Premier League3–2

20 Aug 2022Bournemouth — Arsenal · Premier League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 11 · 2 too close

0.71 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲2.14 goals/match

2.14 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.86 goals/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲2.11 xG/match

2.32 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.88 xG/match

11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲15.1 shots/match

17.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲9.57 shots/match

3.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲6.29 shots/match

6.29 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲2.29 shots/match

42.1%Possessionseason · 7/7●62.3%

4.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/7●9.14 corners/match

5.43 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲3 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/79.71 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲43%

57%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth22.5

Arsenal82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth23.3

Arsenal67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth16.7

Arsenal92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth42.5

Arsenal17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth97.5

Arsenal12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth32.5

Arsenal97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth47.5

Arsenal61.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth7 matchesArsenal7 matches

0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.14 goals/match

2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.11 xG/match

11.9 shots/matchShots7/7▲15.1 shots/match

3.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲6.29 shots/match

42.1%Possession7/7●62.3%

4.43 corners/matchCorners7/7●9.14 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.7 fouls/matchFouls7/79.71 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth4 matchesArsenal3 matches

0.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/3▲2 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/3▲0 goals/match

0.93 xG/matchExpected goals4/3▲2.16 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots4/3▲14 shots/match

3.25 shots/matchShots on target4/3▲5 shots/match

45.8%Possession4/3●61.7%

5.75 corners/matchCorners4/3●8.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls4/310 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Sept 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4