Premier League · 2024Wed, 4 Dec 2024, 20:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

DLDWW

2–0Full-time recap

Manchester United

LDWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Manchester United
Shots	14 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.16 xG/match▲	0.22 xG/match
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	13 corners/match●	0 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Arsenal: 14 shots, 6 on target, 2.16 xG. Manchester United: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.22 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 2.16 xG · Manchester United 0.22 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.21 goals/match	1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	19.3 shots/match	14.4 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester United.

4.11 days▲Rest daysArsenal · Manchester United3.28 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Arsenal	Manchester United	Baseline
Rest days	4.11 days	3.28 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Arsenal

0Draws

1Manchester United

12 May 2024Manchester United — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

3 Sept 2023Arsenal — Manchester United · Premier League3–1

22 Jan 2023Arsenal — Manchester United · Premier League3–2

4 Sept 2022Manchester United — Arsenal · Premier League3–1

23 Apr 2022Arsenal — Manchester United · Premier League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester United in 2 · 2 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.21 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.07 goals/match

1.73 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 14/141.4 xG/match

1.01 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 14/141.53 xG/match

14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1412.9 shots/match

12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲11.1 shots/match

5.29 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/144.86 shots/match

3.79 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/144 shots/match

52.1%Possessionseason · 14/14●53%

6.79 corners/match●Cornersseason · 14/144.71 corners/match

3.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/144.79 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

36%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲43%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1464%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal57.5

Manchester United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal70.8

Manchester United40.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal75

Manchester United81.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal62.5

Manchester United27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal82.5

Manchester United22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5

Manchester United22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal75

Manchester United34.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal14 matchesManchester United14 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.21 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.07 goals/match

1.73 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.4 xG/match

14.4 shots/match▲Shots14/1412.9 shots/match

5.29 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144.86 shots/match

52.1%Possession14/14●53%

6.79 corners/match●Corners14/144.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1411 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal7 matchesManchester United7 matches

2.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match

0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71 goals/match

2.15 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.39 xG/match

19.3 shots/match▲Shots7/712.9 shots/match

7.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/75 shots/match

54.9%Possession7/7●55.4%

9 corners/match●Corners7/74.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls7/710.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.28 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples14 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 5 Dec 2024, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4