Premier League · 2024Wed, 4 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Southampton

LWLLD

1–5Full-time recap

Chelsea

WDDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Southampton	Chelsea
Shots	6 shots/match	26 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.56 xG/match	5.43 xG/match▲
Possession	45%	55%●
Corners	5 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	7 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Southampton: 6 shots, 4 on target, 1.62 xG. Chelsea: 26 shots, 13 on target, 5.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Southampton 1.62 xG · Chelsea 5.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea. A second useful context is: Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea.

4.98 days▲Rest daysSouthampton · Chelsea3.25 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Southampton	Chelsea	Baseline
Rest days	4.98 days	3.25 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.71 shots/match▲ShotsSouthampton · Chelsea15.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Southampton	Chelsea	Baseline
Shots	9.71 shots/match	15.2 shots/match	13.9 shots/match
Shots against	18.6 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Southampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Southampton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	0.79 goals/match	1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Southampton

0Draws

2Chelsea

18 Feb 2023Chelsea — Southampton · Premier League0–1

30 Aug 2022Southampton — Chelsea · Premier League2–1

9 Apr 2022Southampton — Chelsea · Premier League0–6

2 Oct 2021Chelsea — Southampton · Premier League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Southampton favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 11 · 2 too close

0.79 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲2.21 goals/match

2.14 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.07 goals/match

1.14 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/14▲2.13 xG/match

2.38 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.36 xG/match

9.71 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲15.2 shots/match

18.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲11.5 shots/match

3.21 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲6 shots/match

6.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲4.57 shots/match

54.1%Possessionseason · 14/14●56%

4.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/14●5.93 corners/match

7.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲3.71 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1412.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲21%

64%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Southampton77.5

Chelsea82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Southampton7.5

Chelsea85.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Southampton5.8

Chelsea70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Southampton2.5

Chelsea57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Southampton47.5

Chelsea77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Southampton30

Chelsea57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Southampton24.4

Chelsea73.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Southampton14 matchesChelsea14 matches

0.79 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲2.21 goals/match

2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.07 goals/match

1.14 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲2.13 xG/match

9.71 shots/matchShots14/14▲15.2 shots/match

3.21 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲6 shots/match

54.1%Possession14/14●56%

4.86 corners/matchCorners14/14●5.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Southampton7 matchesChelsea7 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.71 goals/match

2.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.13 xG/match

8.29 shots/matchShots7/7▲14.6 shots/match

3.71 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.86 shots/match

50.4%Possession7/7●57.6%

3.86 corners/matchCorners7/7●6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls7/712 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.25 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples14 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 4 Dec 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4