Premier League · 2024Sun, 1 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

LWDDW

3–0Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WDLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Aston Villa
Shots	17 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.69 xG/match▲	1.23 xG/match
Possession	64%●	36%
Corners	3 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	21 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Chelsea: 17 shots, 8 on target, 1.75 xG. Aston Villa: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 1.75 xG · Aston Villa 1.24 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.46 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.46 goals/match	1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.85 corners/matchCornersChelsea · Aston Villa5.85 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Aston Villa	Baseline
Corners	5.85 corners/match	5.85 corners/match	5.15 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Chelsea

1Draws

2Aston Villa

27 Apr 2024Aston Villa — Chelsea · Premier League2–2

24 Sept 2023Chelsea — Aston Villa · Premier League0–1

1 Apr 2023Chelsea — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2

16 Oct 2022Aston Villa — Chelsea · Premier League0–2

26 Dec 2021Aston Villa — Chelsea · Premier League1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 2 · 3 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131.46 goals/match

1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.69 goals/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.62 xG/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.26 xG/match

14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/1312.5 shots/match

11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/1311.8 shots/match

5.46 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/134 shots/match

4.62 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲4.38 shots/match

56.1%●Possessionseason · 13/1351%

5.85 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135.85 corners/match

3.62 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 13/134 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1311.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/138%

92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1369%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea82.5

Aston Villa52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea77.5

Aston Villa37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea60.8

Aston Villa55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea42.5

Aston Villa27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea72.5

Aston Villa62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea60

Aston Villa60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea70

Aston Villa45.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea13 matchesAston Villa13 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.46 goals/match

1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.69 goals/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.62 xG/match

14.4 shots/match▲Shots13/1312.5 shots/match

5.46 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134 shots/match

56.1%●Possession13/1351%

5.85 corners/matchCorners13/135.85 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea7 matchesAston Villa7 matches

1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.43 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match

2.12 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.51 xG/match

15.9 shots/match▲Shots7/711.4 shots/match

6.14 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match

54.4%●Possession7/745.3%

5.86 corners/match●Corners7/75 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.9 fouls/matchFouls7/713.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.94 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples13 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4