Premier League · 2024Wed, 4 Dec 2024, 20:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

DLLDL

3–1Full-time recap

Brentford

WLWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Brentford
Shots	20 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	2.43 xG/match▲	1 xG/match
Possession	49%	51%●
Corners	10 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 20 shots, 10 on target, 2.50 xG. Brentford: 9 shots, 1 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 2.50 xG · Brentford 0.98 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brentford have a visible away split

moderate

Brentford's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.57 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.57 shots/match	11 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa.

3.28 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Brentford4.22 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Aston Villa	Brentford	Baseline
Rest days	3.28 days	4.22 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.57 goals/match	1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Aston Villa

2Draws

1Brentford

6 Apr 2024Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League3–3

17 Dec 2023Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

22 Apr 2023Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

23 Oct 2022Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League4–0

2 Jan 2022Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 3 · 4 too close

1.57 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲1.93 goals/match

1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.86 goals/match

1.68 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/141.63 xG/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 14/141.74 xG/match

13.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1411 shots/match

11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1418.4 shots/match

4.43 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲4.86 shots/match

4.14 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/146.79 shots/match

50.9%●Possessionseason · 14/1447.9%

6.14 corners/match●Cornersseason · 14/144.5 corners/match

4.07 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/147.64 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/147.86 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/147%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa52.5

Brentford42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa45

Brentford51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa59.2

Brentford10.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa37.5

Brentford22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa67.5

Brentford5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa67.5

Brentford17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa52.5

Brentford25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa14 matchesBrentford14 matches

1.57 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.93 goals/match

1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.86 goals/match

1.68 xG/matchExpected goals14/141.63 xG/match

13.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1411 shots/match

4.43 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.86 shots/match

50.9%●Possession14/1447.9%

6.14 corners/match●Corners14/144.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/147.86 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa7 matchesBrentford7 matches

1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match

1.85 xG/match▲Expected goals7/70.84 xG/match

14.7 shots/match▲Shots7/77.57 shots/match

5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.86 shots/match

56.4%●Possession7/744.3%

7.29 corners/match●Corners7/73.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls7/78.43 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.28 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.22 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples14 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 5 Dec 2024, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4