Premier League · 2024Sat, 7 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brentford

LWDWL

4–2Full-time recap

Newcastle United

WWLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brentford	Newcastle United
Shots	11 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.23 xG/match	1.48 xG/match▲
Possession	44%	56%●
Corners	3 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Brentford: 11 shots, 8 on target, 1.21 xG. Newcastle United: 16 shots, 3 on target, 1.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 1.21 xG · Newcastle United 1.48 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brentford, Newcastle United. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.27 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brentford, Newcastle United.

2.78 days▲Rest daysBrentford · Newcastle United2.81 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Brentford	Newcastle United	Baseline
Rest days	2.78 days	2.81 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Brentford have a visible home split

moderate

Brentford's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14 shots/match	11 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Brentford

0Draws

5Newcastle United

19 May 2024Brentford — Newcastle United · Premier League2–4

16 Sept 2023Newcastle United — Brentford · Premier League1–0

8 Apr 2023Brentford — Newcastle United · Premier League1–2

8 Oct 2022Newcastle United — Brentford · Premier League5–1

26 Feb 2022Brentford — Newcastle United · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 7 · 2 too close

2.07 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/151.27 goals/match

1.87 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲1.4 goals/match

1.6 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 15/151.45 xG/match

1.73 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 15/15▲1.37 xG/match

11 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/15▲12.7 shots/match

18.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲14.5 shots/match

5.07 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/153.8 shots/match

6.53 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/15▲5.13 shots/match

47.7%Possessionseason · 15/15●49.2%

4.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/15●5.93 corners/match

7.4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲5.93 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1510.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲20%

87%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford42.5

Newcastle United47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford57.5

Newcastle United24.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford14.2

Newcastle United38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford22.5

Newcastle United32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford5

Newcastle United22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford17.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford26.9

Newcastle United32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford15 matchesNewcastle United15 matches

2.07 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.27 goals/match

1.87 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.4 goals/match

1.6 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.45 xG/match

11 shots/matchShots15/15▲12.7 shots/match

5.07 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.8 shots/match

47.7%Possession15/15●49.2%

4.4 corners/matchCorners15/15●5.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford8 matchesNewcastle United8 matches

3.25 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.38 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.63 goals/match

2.28 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.48 xG/match

14 shots/match▲Shots8/812.9 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.88 shots/match

50.6%Possession8/8●56.8%

5.13 corners/matchCorners8/8●6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.63 fouls/matchFouls8/88.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.78 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.81 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples15 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4