Premier League · 2024Wed, 4 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

LWWLD

3–3Full-time recap

Liverpool

DWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Liverpool
Shots	17 shots/match▲	16 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	2.09 xG/match▲	1.99 xG/match
Possession	41%	59%●
Corners	5 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	9 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 17 shots, 6 on target, 2.07 xG. Liverpool: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.07 xG · Liverpool 1.95 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Liverpool. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.21 goals/match	1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Liverpool.

4.19 days▲Rest daysNewcastle United · Liverpool3.15 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Newcastle United	Liverpool	Baseline
Rest days	4.19 days	3.15 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.07 corners/matchCornersNewcastle United · Liverpool●6.21 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Newcastle United	Liverpool	Baseline
Corners	6.07 corners/match	6.21 corners/match	5.11 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle United

0Draws

5Liverpool

1 Jan 2024Liverpool — Newcastle United · Premier League4–2

27 Aug 2023Newcastle United — Liverpool · Premier League1–2

18 Feb 2023Newcastle United — Liverpool · Premier League0–2

31 Aug 2022Liverpool — Newcastle United · Premier League2–1

30 Apr 2022Newcastle United — Liverpool · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Liverpool in 11 · 2 too close

1.21 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲2.07 goals/match

1.21 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲0.79 goals/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/14▲2.08 xG/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/14▲0.98 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲15.4 shots/match

14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲10.1 shots/match

3.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲6.36 shots/match

4.93 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.5 shots/match

48.7%Possessionseason · 14/14●56.9%

6.07 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/14●6.21 corners/match

6.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲4.36 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲50%

79%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United47.5

Liverpool87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United25.8

Liverpool90.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United42.5

Liverpool95.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United32.5

Liverpool52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United32.5

Liverpool62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United62.5

Liverpool77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United35.6

Liverpool81.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United14 matchesLiverpool14 matches

1.21 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲2.07 goals/match

1.21 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲0.79 goals/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲2.08 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShots14/14▲15.4 shots/match

3.86 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲6.36 shots/match

48.7%Possession14/14●56.9%

6.07 corners/matchCorners14/14●6.21 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United7 matchesLiverpool7 matches

1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.29 goals/match

1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.14 goals/match

1.42 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.05 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots7/7▲15.3 shots/match

3.71 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.43 shots/match

40.6%Possession7/7●58.3%

5.86 corners/matchCorners7/7●7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls7/712.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.15 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples14 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 4 Dec 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

Recent scheduling adds useful context

Both teams have elevated corners records

Head-to-head

Team comparison

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches