Premier League · 2024Wed, 4 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

WLLLL

3–0Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WWLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Nottingham Forest
Shots	17 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.41 xG/match▲	1.04 xG/match
Possession	67%●	33%
Corners	8 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 17 shots, 7 on target, 2.36 xG. Nottingham Forest: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.04 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 2.36 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.04 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.79 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.79 goals/match	1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City.

3.15 days▲Rest daysManchester City · Nottingham Forest4.19 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Manchester City	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Rest days	3.15 days	4.19 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

63.3%●PossessionManchester City · Nottingham Forest40.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	63.3%	40.8%	49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Manchester City

1Draws

0Nottingham Forest

28 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest — Manchester City · Premier League0–2

23 Sept 2023Manchester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

18 Feb 2023Nottingham Forest — Manchester City · Premier League1–1

31 Aug 2022Manchester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League6–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 3 · 2 too close

1.79 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.14 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.14 goals/match

1.98 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 14/141.26 xG/match

1.46 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.11 xG/match

18.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1413.4 shots/match

8.93 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1413.4 shots/match

6.29 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/144.64 shots/match

3.79 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/144.21 shots/match

63.3%●Possessionseason · 14/1440.8%

8.79 corners/match●Cornersseason · 14/144.93 corners/match

2.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/146.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

7.86 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲36%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1479%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City87.5

Nottingham Forest35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City78.3

Nottingham Forest56.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City72.5

Nottingham Forest92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City5

Nottingham Forest22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City97.5

Nottingham Forest40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City73.1

Nottingham Forest36.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City14 matchesNottingham Forest14 matches

1.79 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.14 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.14 goals/match

1.98 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.26 xG/match

18.6 shots/match▲Shots14/1413.4 shots/match

6.29 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144.64 shots/match

63.3%●Possession14/1440.8%

8.79 corners/match●Corners14/144.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.86 fouls/matchFouls14/1411 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City7 matchesNottingham Forest7 matches

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.14 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.43 goals/match

2.39 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.18 xG/match

21 shots/match▲Shots7/712.4 shots/match

7.14 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.43 shots/match

63.7%●Possession7/733.3%

9.57 corners/match●Corners7/73.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.43 fouls/matchFouls7/711 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.19 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples14 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 4 Dec 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4