Premier League · 2024Sat, 7 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester United

DWDWL

2–3Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester United	Nottingham Forest
Shots	17 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.6 xG/match▲	0.83 xG/match
Possession	71%●	29%
Corners	5 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester United: 17 shots, 7 on target, 1.69 xG. Nottingham Forest: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.85 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 1.69 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.85 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester United, Nottingham Forest. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.27 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester United, Nottingham Forest.

2.89 days▲Rest daysManchester United · Nottingham Forest2.92 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Manchester United	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Rest days	2.89 days	2.92 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.2%●PossessionManchester United · Nottingham Forest40%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester United	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	54.2%	40%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Manchester United

0Draws

1Nottingham Forest

30 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest — Manchester United · Premier League2–1

26 Aug 2023Manchester United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–2

16 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest — Manchester United · Premier League0–2

27 Dec 2022Manchester United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 2 · 5 too close

1.27 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/151.27 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/151.2 goals/match

1.41 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 15/151.23 xG/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 15/15▲1.15 xG/match

13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1513.3 shots/match

11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1513.7 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/154.53 shots/match

3.93 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/154.4 shots/match

54.2%●Possessionseason · 15/1540%

4.73 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/15●4.8 corners/match

4.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/156.4 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1511.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1533%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United77.5

Nottingham Forest2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United40

Nottingham Forest35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United78.3

Nottingham Forest55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United27.5

Nottingham Forest92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United32.5

Nottingham Forest37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United27.5

Nottingham Forest32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United38.1

Nottingham Forest37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United15 matchesNottingham Forest15 matches

1.27 goals/matchGoals scored15/151.27 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.2 goals/match

1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.23 xG/match

13.2 shots/matchShots15/1513.3 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154.53 shots/match

54.2%●Possession15/1540%

4.73 corners/matchCorners15/15●4.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United8 matchesNottingham Forest8 matches

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.38 goals/match

1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.5 goals/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.14 xG/match

13.5 shots/match▲Shots8/812.3 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84.25 shots/match

53.1%●Possession8/832.8%

4.75 corners/match●Corners8/83.63 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls8/811.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.92 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples15 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Dec 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4