Premier League · 2024Sat, 21 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

DLWWL

2–1Full-time recap

Manchester City

LLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Manchester City
Shots	11 shots/match	12 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.67 xG/match▲	1.03 xG/match
Possession	44%	56%●
Corners	5 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.64 xG. Manchester City: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.06 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 1.64 xG · Manchester City 1.06 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season17.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.8 shots/match	17.3 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.35 corners/matchCornersAston Villa · Manchester City●8.41 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Manchester City	Baseline
Corners	6.35 corners/match	8.41 corners/match	5.38 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Manchester City17.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Manchester City	Baseline
Shots	12.9 shots/match	17.3 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	11.5 shots/match	9.29 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Aston Villa

1Draws

3Manchester City

3 Apr 2024Manchester City — Aston Villa · Premier League4–1

6 Dec 2023Aston Villa — Manchester City · Premier League1–0

12 Feb 2023Manchester City — Aston Villa · Premier League3–1

3 Sept 2022Aston Villa — Manchester City · Premier League1–1

22 May 2022Manchester City — Aston Villa · Premier League3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 9 · 3 too close

1.53 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲1.71 goals/match

1.53 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/171.47 goals/match

1.64 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 17/17▲1.83 xG/match

1.2 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 17/171.5 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲17.3 shots/match

11.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲9.29 shots/match

4.41 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲5.94 shots/match

4.12 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲3.82 shots/match

50.2%Possessionseason · 17/17●62.5%

6.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/17●8.41 corners/match

3.88 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲3 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/177.76 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

12%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲18%

76%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa47.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa40

Manchester City84.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa60

Manchester City75.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa32.5

Manchester City67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa72.5

Manchester City2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa77.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa53.1

Manchester City70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa17 matchesManchester City17 matches

1.53 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.71 goals/match

1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed17/171.47 goals/match

1.64 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.83 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShots17/17▲17.3 shots/match

4.41 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲5.94 shots/match

50.2%Possession17/17●62.5%

6.35 corners/matchCorners17/17●8.41 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls17/177.76 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa9 matchesManchester City9 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.44 goals/match

1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.44 goals/match

1.88 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.49 xG/match

14.7 shots/matchShots9/915.2 shots/match

5.56 shots/matchShots on target9/95.33 shots/match

54%Possession9/9●62.7%

7.78 corners/match●Corners9/97.56 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls9/97.56 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.83 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples17 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Dec 2024, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4