Premier League · 2024Thu, 26 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

LWDLL

1–1Full-time recap

Everton

DLWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Everton
Shots	24 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.09 xG/match▲	0.63 xG/match
Possession	66%●	34%
Corners	8 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 24 shots, 5 on target, 2.38 xG. Everton: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 2.38 xG · Everton 0.65 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Everton. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.2 shots/match	11.4 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Everton.

5 days▲Rest daysManchester City · Everton3.94 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Manchester City	Everton	Baseline
Rest days	5 days	3.94 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

62.7%●PossessionManchester City · Everton38.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 24.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Everton	Baseline
Possession	62.7%	38.2%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Manchester City

1Draws

0Everton

10 Feb 2024Manchester City — Everton · Premier League2–0

27 Dec 2023Everton — Manchester City · Premier League1–3

14 May 2023Everton — Manchester City · Premier League0–3

31 Dec 2022Manchester City — Everton · Premier League1–1

26 Feb 2022Everton — Manchester City · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Everton in 2 · 3 too close

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/170.88 goals/match

1.44 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/17▲1.29 goals/match

1.84 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/170.99 xG/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 18/171.38 xG/match

17.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1711.4 shots/match

9.22 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1713.1 shots/match

5.89 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/173.59 shots/match

3.78 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/174.35 shots/match

62.7%●Possessionseason · 18/1738.2%

8.39 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/174.06 corners/match

3.11 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/175.82 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

7.61 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1711.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/17▲41%

89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1747%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Everton2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City84.2

Everton17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City77.5

Everton52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City67.5

Everton77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5

Everton37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City97.5

Everton12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City70.6

Everton23.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City18 matchesEverton17 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored18/170.88 goals/match

1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed18/17▲1.29 goals/match

1.84 xG/match▲Expected goals18/170.99 xG/match

17.7 shots/match▲Shots18/1711.4 shots/match

5.89 shots/match▲Shots on target18/173.59 shots/match

62.7%●Possession18/1738.2%

8.39 corners/match●Corners18/174.06 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.61 fouls/matchFouls18/1711.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City9 matchesEverton9 matches

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.67 goals/match

1.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match

2.2 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.97 xG/match

20.1 shots/match▲Shots9/910.7 shots/match

6.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.33 shots/match

62.7%●Possession9/936.1%

9.22 corners/match●Corners9/94 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.67 fouls/matchFouls9/911.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.94 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 26 Dec 2024, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Everton's recent record differs from the season

Recent scheduling adds useful context

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Team comparison

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches