Premier League · 2024Sun, 29 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Leicester City

WDLLL

0–2Full-time recap

Manchester City

WDLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Leicester City	Manchester City
Shots	11 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.3 xG/match▲	1.27 xG/match
Possession	54%●	46%
Corners	4 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Leicester City: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.23 xG. Manchester City: 14 shots, 5 on target, 1.31 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Leicester City 1.23 xG · Manchester City 1.31 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Leicester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.16 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.16 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.95 shots/match▲ShotsLeicester City · Manchester City17.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Leicester City	Manchester City	Baseline
Shots	8.95 shots/match	17.5 shots/match	13.8 shots/match
Shots against	17.8 shots/match	9.32 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Leicester City, Manchester City.

2.77 days▲Rest daysLeicester City · Manchester City3.08 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Leicester City	Manchester City	Baseline
Rest days	2.77 days	3.08 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Leicester City

0Draws

4Manchester City

15 Apr 2023Manchester City — Leicester City · Premier League3–1

29 Oct 2022Leicester City — Manchester City · Premier League0–1

26 Dec 2021Manchester City — Leicester City · Premier League6–3

11 Sept 2021Leicester City — Manchester City · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Leicester City favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 11 · 2 too close

1.16 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲1.68 goals/match

2.21 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.37 goals/match

1 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 19/19▲1.81 xG/match

2.02 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.45 xG/match

8.95 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲17.5 shots/match

17.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/19▲9.32 shots/match

3.21 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲5.84 shots/match

6.26 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲3.79 shots/match

46.1%Possessionseason · 19/19●61.8%

3.42 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/19●8.16 corners/match

6.84 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲3.16 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/197.53 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

5%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲21%

79%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leicester City27.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leicester City12.5

Manchester City85.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leicester City10

Manchester City79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leicester City7.5

Manchester City67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leicester City25

Manchester City2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leicester City7.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leicester City11.9

Manchester City71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Leicester City19 matchesManchester City19 matches

1.16 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.68 goals/match

2.21 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1.37 goals/match

1 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲1.81 xG/match

8.95 shots/matchShots19/19▲17.5 shots/match

3.21 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲5.84 shots/match

46.1%Possession19/19●61.8%

3.42 corners/matchCorners19/19●8.16 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls19/197.53 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Leicester City10 matchesManchester City10 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

0.99 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.47 xG/match

8.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.1 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match

49.4%Possession10/10●61%

3.4 corners/matchCorners10/10●7.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/107.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.77 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.08 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples19 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4