PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sun, 29 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCrystal PalaceSouthampton
Shots19 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.03 xG/match▲0.94 xG/match
Possession46%54%●
Corners8 corners/match●7 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match19 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTaylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPaul Onuachu · Southampton · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJames Bree · Southampton · 20′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMaxence Lacroix · Crystal Palace · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace · 25′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 52′ · 0.04 xG · goalDaichi Kamada · Crystal Palace · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 8′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 60′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDaniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 1′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTyler Dibling · Southampton · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace · 36′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 10′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAdam Armstrong · Southampton · 15′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 70′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMateus Fernandes · Southampton · 64′ · 0.12 xG · on targetIsmaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace · 62′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 30′ · 0.20 xG · on targetIsmaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace · 35′ · 0.21 xG · on targetTrevoh Chalobah · Crystal Palace · 31′ · 0.25 xG · goalDaniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace · 37′ · 0.43 xG · on targetTyler Dibling · Southampton · 15′ · 0.54 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Crystal Palace: 19 shots, 10 on target, 2.03 xG. Southampton: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Trevoh Chalobah · Crystal Palace · 31′Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 52′Tyler Dibling · Southampton · 15′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Crystal Palace 2.03 xG · Southampton 0.91 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Southampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace, Southampton. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Southampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Southampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.63 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace, Southampton.

3 days▲Rest daysCrystal Palace · Southampton3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCrystal PalaceSouthamptonBaseline
Rest days3 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Crystal Palace show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsCrystal Palace · Southampton9.42 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceSouthamptonBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match9.42 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match18.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Crystal Palace
1Draws
0Southampton
Southampton — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–2
Crystal Palace — Southampton · Premier League1–0
Southampton — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–2
Crystal Palace — Southampton · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Southampton in 0 · 2 too close

1.05 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/190.63 goals/match
1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/192.05 goals/match
1.39 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 19/191.04 xG/match
1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 19/192.25 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 19/199.42 shots/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1918.3 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/193 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/196.58 shots/match
43.8%Possessionseason · 19/19●52.8%
5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 19/194.47 corners/match
6.11 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/197.11 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1912.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1911%
68%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1953%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace17.5
Southampton62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace47.5
Southampton4.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace55.8
Southampton9.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace87.5
Southampton2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace37.5
Southampton87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace40
Southampton17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace50.6
Southampton28.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Crystal Palace19 matchesSouthampton19 matches
1.05 goals/match▲Goals scored19/190.63 goals/match
1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/192.05 goals/match
1.39 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.04 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shots19/199.42 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target19/193 shots/match
43.8%Possession19/19●52.8%
5 corners/match●Corners19/194.47 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls19/1912.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Crystal Palace10 matchesSouthampton10 matches
0.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals10/100.8 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shots10/109.4 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.3 shots/match
42.9%Possession10/10●55.4%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/10●5.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCrystal PalaceSouthampton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this