PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Thu, 26 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthCrystal Palace
Shots18 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Expected goals1.47 xG/match▲0.45 xG/match
Possession52%●48%
Corners5 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 49′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPhilip Billing · Bournemouth · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTrevoh Chalobah · Crystal Palace · 85′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace · 87′ · 0.01 xG · on targetEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsmaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace · 12′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 16′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEnes Ünal · Bournemouth · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 64′ · 0.07 xG · on targetEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 65′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTrevoh Chalobah · Crystal Palace · 66′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 23′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 28′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace · 22′ · 0.11 xG · on targetJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 49′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 23′ · 0.14 xG · on targetDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 33′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedEnes Ünal · Bournemouth · 50′ · 0.35 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bournemouth: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.45 xG. Crystal Palace: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 1.45 xG · Crystal Palace 0.43 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Bournemouth
0Draws
2Crystal Palace
Bournemouth — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0
Crystal Palace — Bournemouth · Premier League0–2
Crystal Palace — Bournemouth · Premier League2–0
Bournemouth — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 1 · 4 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.44 goals/match
2 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/181.35 xG/match
1.28 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/181.49 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1813.9 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1813.1 shots/match
5.39 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/184.72 shots/match
5.06 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲4.39 shots/match
45.3%●Possessionseason · 18/1843.7%
6.44 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/184.83 corners/match
5.39 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/186.06 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1810.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1822%
78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1867%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth22.5
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth74.2
Crystal Palace39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth45.8
Crystal Palace48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth97.5
Crystal Palace87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth92.5
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth82.5
Crystal Palace37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth86.2
Crystal Palace38.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth18 matchesCrystal Palace18 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.44 goals/match
2 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.35 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shots18/1813.9 shots/match
5.39 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.72 shots/match
45.3%●Possession18/1843.7%
6.44 corners/match●Corners18/184.83 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth9 matchesCrystal Palace9 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/91.22 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.22 goals/match
2.01 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.31 xG/match
17.9 shots/match▲Shots9/914.2 shots/match
5.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/95.11 shots/match
43.3%Possession9/9●44.8%
6.56 corners/match●Corners9/95.11 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.9 fouls/matchFouls9/912.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.9 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 26 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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