PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sun, 29 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Everton

LWDDD
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonNottingham Forest
Shots13 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.89 xG/match1.48 xG/match▲
Possession64%●36%
Corners5 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Armando Broja · Everton · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArmando Broja · Everton · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArmando Broja · Everton · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJesper Lindstrøm · Everton · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJesper Lindstrøm · Everton · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRamón Sosa · Nottingham Forest · 64′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIliman Ndiaye · Everton · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBeto · Everton · 88′ · 0.04 xG · on targetChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRamón Sosa · Nottingham Forest · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 52′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRamón Sosa · Nottingham Forest · 64′ · 0.11 xG · on targetChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 15′ · 0.12 xG · goalDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 81′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJarrad Branthwaite · Everton · 22′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedTaiwo Awoniyi · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.15 xG · on targetOrel Mangala · Everton · 74′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedIliman Ndiaye · Everton · 5′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 13′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 61′ · 0.20 xG · goalNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 64′ · 0.22 xG · on targetAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.36 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Everton: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.88 xG. Nottingham Forest: 11 shots, 7 on target, 1.63 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Chris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 15′Morgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 0.88 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.63 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Everton, Nottingham Forest. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.37 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.37 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Everton, Nottingham Forest.

3.1 days▲Rest daysEverton · Nottingham Forest3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricEvertonNottingham ForestBaseline
Rest days3.1 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Everton
2Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Everton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0
Nottingham Forest — Everton · Premier League0–1
Nottingham Forest — Everton · Premier League2–2
Everton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 9 · 3 too close

0.83 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/19▲1.37 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/19▲1 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 18/19▲1.24 xG/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 18/19▲1.06 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/19▲13 shots/match
12.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1912.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/19▲4.74 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/19▲4.05 shots/match
39.7%●Possessionseason · 18/1939.6%
4.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/19●4.58 corners/match
5.72 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/196.32 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1911.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
39%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/19▲42%
44%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/19▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton7.5
Nottingham Forest2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton17.5
Nottingham Forest39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton50.8
Nottingham Forest69.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton77.5
Nottingham Forest92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton47.5
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton12.5
Nottingham Forest27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton26.2
Nottingham Forest37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Everton18 matchesNottingham Forest19 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored18/19▲1.37 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed18/19▲1 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals18/19▲1.24 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots18/19▲13 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target18/19▲4.74 shots/match
39.7%●Possession18/1939.6%
4.11 corners/matchCorners18/19●4.58 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1911.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Everton9 matchesNottingham Forest10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored9/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/101.2 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals9/10▲1.15 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots9/1011.9 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target9/10▲4.7 shots/match
43.2%●Possession9/1033.4%
4.22 corners/match●Corners9/103.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFouls9/1011.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples18 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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