Premier League · 2024Thu, 26 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Liverpool

WWDDW

3–1Full-time recap

Leicester City

LWDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Liverpool	Leicester City
Shots	19 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.91 xG/match▲	0.34 xG/match
Possession	69%●	31%
Corners	14 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	17 fouls/match	5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Liverpool: 19 shots, 7 on target, 1.99 xG. Leicester City: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Liverpool 1.99 xG · Leicester City 0.33 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Leicester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Liverpool's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.35 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.2 goals/match	2.35 goals/match	1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Leicester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Leicester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.2 shots/match▲ShotsLiverpool · Leicester City8.83 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Liverpool	Leicester City	Baseline
Shots	16.2 shots/match	8.83 shots/match	13.8 shots/match
Shots against	9.82 shots/match	18.1 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.3%●PossessionLiverpool · Leicester City45.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Liverpool	Leicester City	Baseline
Possession	57.3%	45.6%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Liverpool

0Draws

1Leicester City

15 May 2023Leicester City — Liverpool · Premier League0–3

30 Dec 2022Liverpool — Leicester City · Premier League2–1

10 Feb 2022Liverpool — Leicester City · Premier League2–0

28 Dec 2021Leicester City — Liverpool · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Leicester City in 0 · 2 too close

2.35 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/181.22 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/182.22 goals/match

2.28 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 17/180.99 xG/match

0.97 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 17/182.06 xG/match

16.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/188.83 shots/match

9.82 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1818.1 shots/match

6.59 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/183.17 shots/match

3.41 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/186.33 shots/match

57.3%●Possessionseason · 17/1845.6%

6.53 corners/match●Cornersseason · 17/183.39 corners/match

4.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/187 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1811.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

41%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/186%

94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1883%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool87.5

Leicester City27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool94.2

Leicester City12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool94.2

Leicester City10

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool72.5

Leicester City7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool57.5

Leicester City30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool82.5

Leicester City7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool81.2

Leicester City11.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Liverpool17 matchesLeicester City18 matches

2.35 goals/match▲Goals scored17/181.22 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/182.22 goals/match

2.28 xG/match▲Expected goals17/180.99 xG/match

16.2 shots/match▲Shots17/188.83 shots/match

6.59 shots/match▲Shots on target17/183.17 shots/match

57.3%●Possession17/1845.6%

6.53 corners/match●Corners17/183.39 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls17/1811.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Liverpool9 matchesLeicester City9 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.78 goals/match

2.1 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.02 xG/match

16 shots/match▲Shots9/99.22 shots/match

6.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.44 shots/match

57.6%●Possession9/942.3%

6.33 corners/match●Corners9/93.44 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls9/910 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.25 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples17 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 27 Dec 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4