PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Newcastle United 3–0 Aston Villa · Premier League

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Newcastle United won 3–0.

Shots
224
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
2.760.34
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Newcastle United beat Aston Villa 3–0. Recorded in this match (Newcastle United – Aston Villa): shots 22–4, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 2.76–0.34, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots4 shotsNewcastle United 22 shots, Aston Villa 4 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shotNewcastle United 8 shots, Aston Villa 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.76 xG0.34 xGNewcastle United 2.76 xG, Aston Villa 0.34 xG
  • Possession63%37%Newcastle United 63%, Aston Villa 37%
  • Corners9 corners6 cornersNewcastle United 9 corners, Aston Villa 6 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls10 foulsNewcastle United 15 fouls, Aston Villa 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoelinton · Newcastle United · 25′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoelinton · Newcastle United · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Digne · Aston Villa · 21′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 31′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 2′ · 0.06 xG · goalAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 12′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 50′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBoubacar Kamara · Aston Villa · 11′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoelinton · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.08 xG · goalBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 5′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJoelinton · Newcastle United · 36′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJoelinton · Newcastle United · 65′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 54′ · 0.13 xG · on targetHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 81′ · 0.13 xG · on targetPau Torres · Aston Villa · 79′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedSandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 44′ · 0.35 xG · on targetJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 65′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 59′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Newcastle United: 22 shots, 8 on target, 2.70 xG. Aston Villa: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Anthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 2′Alexander Isak · Newcastle United · 59′Joelinton · Newcastle United · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.70 xG · Aston Villa 0.35 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Newcastle United
0Draws
1Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Newcastle United · Premier League1–3
Newcastle United — Aston Villa · Premier League5–1
Aston Villa — Newcastle United · Premier League3–0
Newcastle United — Aston Villa · Premier League4–0
Newcastle United — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Newcastle United favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Newcastle United18 matchesAston Villa18 matches
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181.44 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.61 goals/match
1.7 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/181.57 xG/match
14.2 shots/match ▲Shots18/1812.4 shots/match
4.61 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/184.22 shots/match
51% ●Possession18/1849.4%
5.78 corners/matchCorners18/18● 6.33 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 26 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNewcastle UnitedAston Villa
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headNewcastle United — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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