Premier League · 2024Thu, 26 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

DDLWW

3–0Full-time recap

Aston Villa

LWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Aston Villa
Shots	22 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	2.76 xG/match▲	0.34 xG/match
Possession	63%●	37%
Corners	9 corners/match●	6 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 22 shots, 8 on target, 2.70 xG. Aston Villa: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.70 xG · Aston Villa 0.35 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.2 goals/match	1.67 goals/match	1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.2 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Newcastle United

0Draws

1Aston Villa

30 Jan 2024Aston Villa — Newcastle United · Premier League1–3

12 Aug 2023Newcastle United — Aston Villa · Premier League5–1

15 Apr 2023Aston Villa — Newcastle United · Premier League3–0

29 Oct 2022Newcastle United — Aston Villa · Premier League4–0

13 Feb 2022Newcastle United — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 2 · 3 too close

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.44 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.61 goals/match

1.7 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/181.57 xG/match

1.21 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/181.29 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1812.4 shots/match

13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲12.1 shots/match

4.61 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/184.22 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/184.33 shots/match

51%●Possessionseason · 18/1849.4%

5.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/18●6.33 corners/match

5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲4.17 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1811.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1811%

83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1872%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United52.5

Aston Villa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United56.7

Aston Villa34.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United56.7

Aston Villa54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United62.5

Aston Villa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United12.5

Aston Villa65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United62.5

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United43.8

Aston Villa50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United18 matchesAston Villa18 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.44 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.61 goals/match

1.7 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.57 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shots18/1812.4 shots/match

4.61 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.22 shots/match

51%●Possession18/1849.4%

5.78 corners/matchCorners18/18●6.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United9 matchesAston Villa9 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match

0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.11 goals/match

1.83 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.26 xG/match

15.2 shots/match▲Shots9/910.2 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.89 shots/match

45.1%●Possession9/944.9%

6.11 corners/match●Corners9/94.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.7 fouls/matchFouls9/911.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.1 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 26 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4