Premier League · 2024Mon, 30 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WWLWL

2–2Full-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

LDLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Brighton & Hove Albion
Shots	20 shots/match▲	13 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.78 xG/match▲	1.13 xG/match
Possession	60%●	40%
Corners	12 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 20 shots, 4 on target, 1.82 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 1.82 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 1.13 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton & Hove Albion. A second useful context is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton & Hove Albion.

4.2 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Brighton & Hove Albion3.01 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Aston Villa	Brighton & Hove Albion	Baseline
Rest days	4.2 days	3.01 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.53 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible home split

moderate

Aston Villa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.2 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Aston Villa

0Draws

1Brighton & Hove Albion

5 May 2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

30 Sept 2023Aston Villa — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League6–1

28 May 2023Aston Villa — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–1

13 Nov 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

26 Feb 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 5 · 5 too close

1.47 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/191.53 goals/match

1.63 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.47 goals/match

1.58 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 19/191.4 xG/match

1.28 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 19/191.56 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲14.8 shots/match

12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/1912.2 shots/match

4.21 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲4.89 shots/match

4.32 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/194.26 shots/match

50%Possessionseason · 19/19●53.2%

6.63 corners/match●Cornersseason · 19/195.16 corners/match

4.11 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/195.47 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1911.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲21%

74%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa47.5

Brighton & Hove Albion67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa35

Brighton & Hove Albion61.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa54.2

Brighton & Hove Albion58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa37.5

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa65

Brighton & Hove Albion65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa87.5

Brighton & Hove Albion52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa53.1

Brighton & Hove Albion61.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa19 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion19 matches

1.47 goals/matchGoals scored19/191.53 goals/match

1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1.47 goals/match

1.58 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.4 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShots19/19▲14.8 shots/match

4.21 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲4.89 shots/match

50%Possession19/19●53.2%

6.63 corners/match●Corners19/195.16 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa10 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion10 matches

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.25 xG/match

15.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1013 shots/match

5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match

54.6%●Possession10/1051.7%

8.2 corners/match●Corners10/104.3 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.01 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples19 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 30 Dec 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4