Premier League · 2024Mon, 30 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester United

LLWLL

0–2Full-time recap

Newcastle United

DLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester United	Newcastle United
Shots	10 shots/match	12 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.9 xG/match	1.92 xG/match▲
Possession	53%●	47%
Corners	2 corners/match	3 corners/match●
Fouls	13 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester United: 10 shots, 1 on target, 0.85 xG. Newcastle United: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 0.85 xG · Newcastle United 1.86 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.68 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3 goals/match	1.68 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Manchester United

2Draws

2Newcastle United

15 May 2024Manchester United — Newcastle United · Premier League3–2

2 Dec 2023Newcastle United — Manchester United · Premier League1–0

2 Apr 2023Newcastle United — Manchester United · Premier League2–0

16 Oct 2022Manchester United — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0

27 Dec 2021Newcastle United — Manchester United · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 7 · 3 too close

1.11 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲1.68 goals/match

1.37 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.11 goals/match

1.42 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 19/19▲1.71 xG/match

1.46 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.2 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲14.1 shots/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1912.9 shots/match

4.74 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/194.58 shots/match

3.95 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/194.32 shots/match

53.8%●Possessionseason · 19/1950.8%

4.84 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/19●5.63 corners/match

4.53 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/195.32 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1910.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

32%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲37%

58%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United72.5

Newcastle United52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United36.7

Newcastle United53.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United75

Newcastle United64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United27.5

Newcastle United57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United35

Newcastle United12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United37.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United40

Newcastle United41.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United19 matchesNewcastle United19 matches

1.11 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.68 goals/match

1.37 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1.11 goals/match

1.42 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲1.71 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots19/19▲14.1 shots/match

4.74 shots/matchShots on target19/194.58 shots/match

53.8%●Possession19/1950.8%

4.84 corners/matchCorners19/19●5.63 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United10 matchesNewcastle United10 matches

1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

1.47 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.61 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1013 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.2 shots/match

53.8%Possession10/10●55.9%

5.3 corners/match●Corners10/105.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/108.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.21 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples19 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 31 Dec 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4