Premier League · 2024Sat, 21 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Ipswich Town

DLLLW

0–4Full-time recap

Newcastle United

LDDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Ipswich Town	Newcastle United
Shots	10 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.71 xG/match	2.33 xG/match▲
Possession	42%	58%●
Corners	2 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Ipswich Town: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.74 xG. Newcastle United: 15 shots, 7 on target, 2.31 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Ipswich Town 0.74 xG · Newcastle United 2.31 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Ipswich Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.59 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	1.59 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Ipswich Town have a visible home split

moderate

Ipswich Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12 shots/match	10.2 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Ipswich Town favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 11 · 2 too close

0.94 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲1.59 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲1.24 goals/match

0.95 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 17/17▲1.64 xG/match

2.1 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 17/17▲1.26 xG/match

10.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲13.7 shots/match

15.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲13.6 shots/match

3.29 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲4.41 shots/match

5.76 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲4.71 shots/match

42.7%Possessionseason · 17/17●50.3%

4.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/17●5.59 corners/match

6.47 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲5.47 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1710.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲29%

65%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Ipswich Town12.5

Newcastle United52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Ipswich Town12.5

Newcastle United49.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Ipswich Town20

Newcastle United45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Ipswich Town22.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town82.5

Newcastle United12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town30

Newcastle United57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Ipswich Town34.4

Newcastle United38.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Ipswich Town17 matchesNewcastle United17 matches

0.94 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.59 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.24 goals/match

0.95 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.64 xG/match

10.2 shots/matchShots17/17▲13.7 shots/match

3.29 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲4.41 shots/match

42.7%Possession17/17●50.3%

4.71 corners/matchCorners17/17●5.59 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Ipswich Town9 matchesNewcastle United9 matches

0.67 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.67 goals/match

1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.44 goals/match

0.94 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.57 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots9/9▲13.1 shots/match

3.33 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.22 shots/match

45.2%Possession9/9●56.9%

5 corners/matchCorners9/9●5.44 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls9/98.56 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples17 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4