PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Fri, 27 Dec 2024, 20:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWDDW
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalIpswich Town
Shots13 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Expected goals1.86 xG/match▲0.15 xG/match
Possession68%●32%
Corners5 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kalvin Phillips · Ipswich Town · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJack Taylor · Ipswich Town · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 77′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJurriën Timber · Arsenal · 19′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 73′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 74′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 53′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 49′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNathan Broadhead · Ipswich Town · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 63′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 75′ · 0.28 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 23′ · 0.74 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.85 xG. Ipswich Town: 3 shots, 0 on target, 0.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kai Havertz · Arsenal · 23′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.85 xG · Ipswich Town 0.15 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Ipswich Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.9 shots/match14.1 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Ipswich Town show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Ipswich Town's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Ipswich Town9.78 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalIpswich TownBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match9.78 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match15.2 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Ipswich Town in 0 · 2 too close

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/180.89 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.83 goals/match
1.79 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/180.9 xG/match
0.9 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/182.08 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/189.78 shots/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1815.2 shots/match
5.22 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.11 shots/match
3.39 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/185.72 shots/match
55.5%●Possessionseason · 18/1842.1%
6.5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/184.5 corners/match
3.11 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/186.39 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1812.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/186%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1861%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal77.5
Ipswich Town12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal70.8
Ipswich Town10.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal92.5
Ipswich Town19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal37.5
Ipswich Town22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal52.5
Ipswich Town82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal82.5
Ipswich Town22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal66.2
Ipswich Town31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal18 matchesIpswich Town18 matches
1.94 goals/match▲Goals scored18/180.89 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.83 goals/match
1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals18/180.9 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shots18/189.78 shots/match
5.22 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.11 shots/match
55.5%●Possession18/1842.1%
6.5 corners/match●Corners18/184.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal9 matchesIpswich Town9 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.11 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
2.02 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.87 xG/match
17.9 shots/match▲Shots9/97.56 shots/match
6.78 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.89 shots/match
58.8%●Possession9/939%
8.44 corners/match●Corners9/94 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11 fouls/matchFouls9/913.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.22 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Dec 2024, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalIpswich Town
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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