PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Arsenal 1–0 Ipswich Town · Premier League

Arsenal

WWDDW
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 1–0.

Shots
133
Shots on target
50
Expected goals
1.860.15
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Ipswich Town 1–0. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Ipswich Town): shots 13–3, shots on target 5–0, expected goals 1.86–0.15, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Ipswich Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.9 shots/match14.1 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Ipswich Town show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Ipswich Town's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsArsenal · Ipswich Town9.78 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalIpswich TownBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match9.78 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match15.2 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots3 shotsArsenal 13 shots, Ipswich Town 3 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots0 shotsArsenal 5 shots, Ipswich Town 0 shots
  • Expected goals1.86 xG0.15 xGArsenal 1.86 xG, Ipswich Town 0.15 xG
  • Possession68%32%Arsenal 68%, Ipswich Town 32%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerArsenal 5 corners, Ipswich Town 1 corner
  • Fouls7 fouls12 foulsArsenal 7 fouls, Ipswich Town 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kalvin Phillips · Ipswich Town · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJack Taylor · Ipswich Town · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 77′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJurriën Timber · Arsenal · 19′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 73′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 74′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 53′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 49′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNathan Broadhead · Ipswich Town · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 63′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 75′ · 0.28 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 23′ · 0.74 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.85 xG. Ipswich Town: 3 shots, 0 on target, 0.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kai Havertz · Arsenal · 23′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.85 xG · Ipswich Town 0.15 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Ipswich Town in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal18 matchesIpswich Town18 matches
1.94 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/180.89 goals/match
0.89 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.83 goals/match
1.79 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/180.9 xG/match
14.1 shots/match ▲Shots18/189.78 shots/match
5.22 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/183.11 shots/match
55.5% ●Possession18/1842.1%
6.5 corners/match ●Corners18/184.5 corners/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Dec 2024, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalIpswich Town
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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