PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–6Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricIpswich TownManchester City
Shots8 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.65 xG/match2.84 xG/match▲
Possession33%67%●
Corners4 corners/match7 corners/match●
Fouls4 fouls/match7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Omari Hutchinson · Ipswich Town · 61′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 16′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSam Morsy · Ipswich Town · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOmari Hutchinson · Ipswich Town · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNico O'Reilly · Manchester City · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 30′ · 0.04 xG · goalDivin Mubama · Manchester City · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Ipswich Town · 29′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 49′ · 0.06 xG · goalBen Johnson · Ipswich Town · 49′ · 0.08 xG · on targetCameron Burgess · Ipswich Town · 3′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 18′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Ipswich Town · 8′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJames McAtee · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDara O'Shea · Ipswich Town · 25′ · 0.13 xG · on targetKevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 59′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 27′ · 0.23 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 59′ · 0.23 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 42′ · 0.43 xG · goalJames McAtee · Manchester City · 69′ · 0.48 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 57′ · 0.49 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 15′ · 0.58 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Ipswich Town: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.54 xG. Manchester City: 17 shots, 9 on target, 3.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Phil Foden · Manchester City · 27′Mateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 30′Phil Foden · Manchester City · 42′Jérémy Doku · Manchester City · 49′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 57′James McAtee · Manchester City · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Ipswich Town 0.54 xG · Manchester City 3.09 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Ipswich Town. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match2 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Ipswich Town.

2.88 days▲Rest daysIpswich Town · Manchester City4.88 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricIpswich TownManchester CityBaseline
Rest days2.88 days4.88 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Ipswich Town show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Ipswich Town's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.32 shots/match▲ShotsIpswich Town · Manchester City17.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricIpswich TownManchester CityBaseline
Shots9.32 shots/match17.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match10 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Ipswich Town
0Draws
1Manchester City
Manchester City — Ipswich Town · Premier League4–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Ipswich Town favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 11 · 2 too close

0.91 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲2 goals/match
1.95 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.32 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 22/22▲1.88 xG/match
2.07 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.46 xG/match
9.32 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲17.3 shots/match
15.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲10 shots/match
3.27 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲6.14 shots/match
5.73 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲3.91 shots/match
40.4%Possessionseason · 22/22●61.5%
4.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/22●7.91 corners/match
6.68 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲3.14 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/227.36 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲23%
59%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Ipswich Town12.5
Manchester City97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Ipswich Town10.8
Manchester City89.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Ipswich Town20
Manchester City80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Ipswich Town17.5
Manchester City67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town62.5
Manchester City2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town15
Manchester City97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Ipswich Town24.4
Manchester City70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Ipswich Town22 matchesManchester City22 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲2 goals/match
1.95 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲1.32 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲1.88 xG/match
9.32 shots/matchShots22/22▲17.3 shots/match
3.27 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲6.14 shots/match
40.4%Possession22/22●61.5%
4.18 corners/matchCorners22/22●7.91 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls22/227.36 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Ipswich Town12 matchesManchester City12 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.92 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.25 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲1.64 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots12/12▲15.8 shots/match
3.58 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.83 shots/match
42.5%Possession12/12●61%
4.5 corners/matchCorners12/12●7 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls12/127.08 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.88 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsIpswich TownManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Ipswich Town vs Manchester City — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath