PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Paris Saint-Germain 4–2 Manchester City · UEFA Champions League

4–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 4–2.

Shots
269
Shots on target
96
Expected goals
2.811.76
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint-Germain beat Manchester City 4–2. Recorded in this match (Paris Saint-Germain – Manchester City): shots 26–9, shots on target 9–6, expected goals 2.81–1.76, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7 corners/matchCornersParis Saint-Germain · Manchester City● 8.43 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainManchester CityBaseline
Corners7 corners/match8.43 corners/match4.71 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Paris Saint-Germain have a visible home split

weak

Paris Saint-Germain's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

25 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season19.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots25 shots/match19.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Paris Saint-Germain's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris Saint-Germain's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.67 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots26 shots9 shotsParis Saint-Germain 26 shots, Manchester City 9 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots6 shotsParis Saint-Germain 9 shots, Manchester City 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.81 xG1.76 xGParis Saint-Germain 2.81 xG, Manchester City 1.76 xG
  • Possession63%37%Paris Saint-Germain 63%, Manchester City 37%
  • Corners11 corners6 cornersParis Saint-Germain 11 corners, Manchester City 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls10 foulsParis Saint-Germain 10 fouls, Manchester City 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Désiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 19′ · 0.02 xG · on targetVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 84′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSavinho · Manchester City · 13′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 21′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 30′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedİlkay Gündoğan · Manchester City · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 63′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 66′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 60′ · 0.13 xG · goalGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′ · 0.13 xG · on targetJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 78′ · 0.16 xG · goalJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 27′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedKevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 13′ · 0.18 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 83′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 10′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 27′ · 0.20 xG · on targetSavinho · Manchester City · 39′ · 0.20 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′ · 0.23 xG · goalJack Grealish · Manchester City · 50′ · 0.39 xG · goalBernardo Silva · Manchester City · 50′ · 0.39 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 53′ · 0.56 xG · goalOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 56′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint-Germain: 26 shots, 9 on target, 2.84 xG. Manchester City: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.94 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 56′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 60′João Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 78′Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′Jack Grealish · Manchester City · 50′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 53′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint-Germain 2.84 xG · Manchester City 1.94 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Paris Saint-Germain
0Draws
1Manchester City
Manchester City — Paris Saint-Germain · UEFA Champions League2–1
Paris Saint-Germain — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris Saint-Germain favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Manchester City in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain7 matchesManchester City7 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 2.14 goals/match
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.86 goals/match
1.99 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 2.35 xG/match
19.4 shots/matchShots7/718.7 shots/match
6.29 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 7.57 shots/match
62.4%Possession7/7● 65.6%
7 corners/matchCorners7/7● 8.43 corners/match
9.57 fouls/matchFouls7/78.43 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis Saint-GermainManchester City
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
Head-to-headParis Saint-Germain — Manchester City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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