Premier League · 2024Sat, 25 Jan 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

DWWDW

3–1Full-time recap

Chelsea

LLDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Chelsea
Shots	15 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.5 xG/match▲	1.8 xG/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	2 corners/match	3 corners/match●
Fouls	6 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 15 shots, 6 on target, 2.54 xG. Chelsea: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 2.54 xG · Chelsea 1.86 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.04 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.4 goals/match	2.04 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.65 corners/match●CornersManchester City · Chelsea5.96 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Chelsea	Baseline
Corners	7.65 corners/match	5.96 corners/match	5.07 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Manchester City

2Draws

0Chelsea

18 Aug 2024Chelsea — Manchester City · Premier League0–2

17 Feb 2024Manchester City — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

12 Nov 2023Chelsea — Manchester City · Premier League4–4

21 May 2023Manchester City — Chelsea · Premier League1–0

5 Jan 2023Chelsea — Manchester City · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 1 · 7 too close

2.04 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/231.96 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/231.3 goals/match

1.91 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 23/23▲2.08 xG/match

1.47 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 23/231.46 xG/match

17.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2316.1 shots/match

10 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2311.1 shots/match

6.13 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/236.09 shots/match

3.91 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/234.74 shots/match

61.3%●Possessionseason · 23/2357.8%

7.65 corners/match●Cornersseason · 23/235.96 corners/match

3.13 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/233.74 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

7.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

22%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2317%

91%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2387%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Chelsea87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City90.8

Chelsea85

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City78.3

Chelsea60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City72.5

Chelsea67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5

Chelsea62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City92.5

Chelsea67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City70

Chelsea75.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City23 matchesChelsea23 matches

2.04 goals/matchGoals scored23/231.96 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed23/231.3 goals/match

1.91 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲2.08 xG/match

17.2 shots/match▲Shots23/2316.1 shots/match

6.13 shots/matchShots on target23/236.09 shots/match

61.3%●Possession23/2357.8%

7.65 corners/match●Corners23/235.96 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.3 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City11 matchesChelsea12 matches

2.18 goals/matchGoals scored11/122.08 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed11/121.33 goals/match

2.2 xG/match▲Expected goals11/122 xG/match

18.7 shots/match▲Shots11/1214.7 shots/match

6.45 shots/match▲Shots on target11/125.33 shots/match

61.5%●Possession11/1260%

8.36 corners/match●Corners11/126.08 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.55 fouls/matchFouls11/1211 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Jan 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4