Premier League · 2024Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

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3–2Full-time recap

Southampton

DLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Southampton
Shots	14 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.9 xG/match▲	0.88 xG/match
Possession	45%	55%●
Corners	2 corners/match	8 corners/match●
Fouls	4 fouls/match	18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 14 shots, 5 on target, 2.01 xG. Southampton: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.90 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 2.01 xG · Southampton 0.90 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Southampton. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.5 goals/match	1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Southampton.

4.75 days▲Rest daysNottingham Forest · Southampton2.75 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Southampton	Baseline
Rest days	4.75 days	2.75 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Southampton9.55 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Southampton	Baseline
Shots	12.6 shots/match	9.55 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	13.3 shots/match	18.4 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Nottingham Forest

0Draws

0Southampton

24 Aug 2024Southampton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–1

8 May 2023Nottingham Forest — Southampton · Premier League4–3

4 Jan 2023Southampton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Southampton in 0 · 3 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/220.68 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/222.27 goals/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 22/221.02 xG/match

1.12 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 22/222.39 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/229.55 shots/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2218.4 shots/match

4.59 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/223.05 shots/match

4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/226.82 shots/match

39.3%Possessionseason · 22/22●52.2%

4.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/22●4.5 corners/match

6.45 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/226.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2212.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

41%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/229%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2255%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest2.5

Southampton57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest41.7

Southampton5.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest60.8

Southampton5.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest92.5

Southampton2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest17.5

Southampton87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest15

Southampton32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest28.1

Southampton33.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest22 matchesSouthampton22 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored22/220.68 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/222.27 goals/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals22/221.02 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots22/229.55 shots/match

4.59 shots/match▲Shots on target22/223.05 shots/match

39.3%Possession22/22●52.2%

4.18 corners/matchCorners22/22●4.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls22/2212.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest11 matchesSouthampton12 matches

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored11/120.67 goals/match

0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/121.92 goals/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals11/120.87 xG/match

13.5 shots/match▲Shots11/129.75 shots/match

4.64 shots/match▲Shots on target11/122.67 shots/match

44.7%Possession11/12●54.1%

4.64 corners/matchCorners11/12●5.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls11/1213.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.75 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.75 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4