PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Arsenal 5–1 Manchester City · Premier League

Arsenal

WDWDW
5–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 5–1.

Shots
127
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
1.040.81
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Manchester City 5–1. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Manchester City): shots 12–7, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 1.04–0.81, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match2 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.46 corners/matchCornersArsenal · Manchester City● 7.42 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricArsenalManchester CityBaseline
Corners6.46 corners/match7.42 corners/match5.08 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.1 shots/match13.7 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots7 shotsArsenal 12 shots, Manchester City 7 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsArsenal 7 shots, Manchester City 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.04 xG0.81 xGArsenal 1.04 xG, Manchester City 0.81 xG
  • Possession46%54%Arsenal 46%, Manchester City 54%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersArsenal 5 corners, Manchester City 2 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls7 foulsArsenal 6 fouls, Manchester City 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 1′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOmar Marmoush · Manchester City · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSavinho · Manchester City · 44′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEthan Nwaneri · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.02 xG · goalMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 60′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMyles Lewis-Skelly · Arsenal · 62′ · 0.04 xG · goalJurriën Timber · Arsenal · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Arsenal · 57′ · 0.05 xG · goalGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSavinho · Manchester City · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 2′ · 0.12 xG · goalKai Havertz · Arsenal · 76′ · 0.13 xG · goalJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 23′ · 0.17 xG · on targetManuel Akanji · Manchester City · 33′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 68′ · 0.17 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 26′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 55′ · 0.34 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 12 shots, 7 on target, 0.98 xG. Manchester City: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.81 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 2′Thomas Partey · Arsenal · 57′Myles Lewis-Skelly · Arsenal · 62′Kai Havertz · Arsenal · 76′Ethan Nwaneri · Arsenal · 90′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 55′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 0.98 xG · Manchester City 0.81 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Arsenal
2Draws
2Manchester City
Manchester City — Arsenal · Premier League2–2
Manchester City — Arsenal · Premier League0–0
Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–0
Manchester City — Arsenal · Premier League4–1
Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Manchester City in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal24 matchesManchester City24 matches
2.04 goals/matchGoals scored24/242 goals/match
0.92 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/241.46 goals/match
1.66 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 1.86 xG/match
13.7 shots/matchShots24/24▲ 16.8 shots/match
5.08 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲ 6.04 shots/match
54.9%Possession24/24● 61%
6.46 corners/matchCorners24/24● 7.42 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls24/247.29 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Feb 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalManchester City
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headArsenal — Manchester City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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