Premier League · 2024Sun, 2 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester United

LDWLW

0–2Full-time recap

Crystal Palace

WDWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester United	Crystal Palace
Shots	17 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	3 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.31 xG/match	2.61 xG/match▲
Possession	67%●	33%
Corners	11 corners/match●	0 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester United: 17 shots, 2 on target, 1.15 xG. Crystal Palace: 11 shots, 3 on target, 2.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 1.15 xG · Crystal Palace 2.64 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.17 goals/match	1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share.

54%●PossessionManchester United · Crystal Palace43.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester United	Crystal Palace	Baseline
Possession	54%	43.4%	50.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Manchester United

2Draws

2Crystal Palace

21 Sept 2024Crystal Palace — Manchester United · Premier League0–0

6 May 2024Crystal Palace — Manchester United · Premier League4–0

30 Sept 2023Manchester United — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–1

4 Feb 2023Manchester United — Crystal Palace · Premier League2–1

18 Jan 2023Crystal Palace — Manchester United · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 4 · 7 too close

1.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/241.17 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.25 goals/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/241.39 xG/match

1.55 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.4 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/2413.7 shots/match

11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2413 shots/match

4.46 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/24▲4.96 shots/match

3.96 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/243.96 shots/match

54%●Possessionseason · 24/2443.4%

5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 24/244.67 corners/match

4.21 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/246.08 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2410.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2429%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/24▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United72.5

Crystal Palace17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United35

Crystal Palace45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United71.7

Crystal Palace66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United27.5

Crystal Palace87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United42.5

Crystal Palace22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United47.5

Crystal Palace42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United42.5

Crystal Palace43.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United24 matchesCrystal Palace24 matches

1.17 goals/matchGoals scored24/241.17 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲1.25 goals/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goals24/241.39 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots24/2413.7 shots/match

4.46 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲4.96 shots/match

54%●Possession24/2443.4%

5 corners/match●Corners24/244.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls24/2410.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United13 matchesCrystal Palace12 matches

1.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/12▲1.42 goals/match

1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed13/12▲0.92 goals/match

1.6 xG/match▲Expected goals13/121.39 xG/match

14.7 shots/match▲Shots13/1213.2 shots/match

4.62 shots/matchShots on target13/12▲4.92 shots/match

55.1%●Possession13/1243.9%

5.54 corners/match●Corners13/124.42 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1211.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4