PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sun, 26 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCrystal PalaceBrentford
Shots16 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.08 xG/match1.26 xG/match▲
Possession47%53%●
Corners4 corners/match7 corners/match●
Fouls8 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace · 36′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWill Hughes · Crystal Palace · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKevin Schade · Brentford · 23′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYoane Wissa · Brentford · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChris Richards · Crystal Palace · 59′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 7′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 59′ · 0.03 xG · on targetWill Hughes · Crystal Palace · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMads Roerslev · Brentford · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 22′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace · 55′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKevin Schade · Brentford · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 1′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 25′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaxence Lacroix · Crystal Palace · 30′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSepp van den Berg · Brentford · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 31′ · 0.07 xG · on targetKevin Schade · Brentford · 80′ · 0.07 xG · goalEberechi Eze · Crystal Palace · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEddie Nketiah · Crystal Palace · 78′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 49′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMaxence Lacroix · Crystal Palace · 47′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRomain Esse · Crystal Palace · 85′ · 0.33 xG · goalBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 66′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Crystal Palace: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.10 xG. Brentford: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Romain Esse · Crystal Palace · 85′Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 66′Kevin Schade · Brentford · 80′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Crystal Palace 1.10 xG · Brentford 1.32 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Crystal Palace show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsCrystal Palace · Brentford11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceBrentfordBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against12.8 shots/match18.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Brentford have a visible away split

moderate

Brentford's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.27 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.27 shots/match11 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Crystal Palace
3Draws
1Brentford
Brentford — Crystal Palace · Premier League2–1
Crystal Palace — Brentford · Premier League3–1
Brentford — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–1
Brentford — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–1
Crystal Palace — Brentford · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 3 · 3 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲1.83 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.74 goals/match
1.34 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 23/23▲1.6 xG/match
1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 23/231.67 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2311 shots/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2318.5 shots/match
5.04 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/235.04 shots/match
4.04 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/236.26 shots/match
43.8%Possessionseason · 23/23●47.6%
4.87 corners/match●Cornersseason · 23/234.39 corners/match
5.87 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/236.87 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/237.83 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2313%
74%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace17.5
Brentford42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace49.2
Brentford56.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace64.2
Brentford12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace87.5
Brentford22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace20
Brentford7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace42.5
Brentford25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace46.9
Brentford32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Crystal Palace23 matchesBrentford23 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲1.83 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.74 goals/match
1.34 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲1.6 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots23/2311 shots/match
5.04 shots/matchShots on target23/235.04 shots/match
43.8%Possession23/23●47.6%
4.87 corners/match●Corners23/234.39 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFouls23/237.83 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Crystal Palace12 matchesBrentford11 matches
0.92 goals/matchGoals scored12/11▲1.18 goals/match
1.58 goals/matchGoals allowed12/111.55 goals/match
1.39 xG/match▲Expected goals12/111.3 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shots12/119.27 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target12/114 shots/match
42.8%Possession12/11●44.7%
4.92 corners/match●Corners12/113.82 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10 fouls/matchFouls12/118.45 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jan 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCrystal PalaceBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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