Premier League · 2024Sun, 26 Jan 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

LDWWD

1–1Full-time recap

West Ham United

WLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	West Ham United
Shots	14 shots/match	14 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	0.85 xG/match	1.31 xG/match▲
Possession	46%	54%●
Corners	4 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 14 shots, 4 on target, 0.86 xG. West Ham United: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 0.86 xG · West Ham United 1.32 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: West Ham United's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

West Ham United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

West Ham United's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.4 shots/match	13.7 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible home split

moderate

Aston Villa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.9 shots/match	12.6 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Aston Villa

2Draws

1West Ham United

17 Aug 2024West Ham United — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

17 Mar 2024West Ham United — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

22 Oct 2023Aston Villa — West Ham United · Premier League4–1

12 Mar 2023West Ham United — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

28 Aug 2022Aston Villa — West Ham United · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · West Ham United in 2 · 4 too close

1.48 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/231.22 goals/match

1.52 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.91 goals/match

1.51 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 23/231.38 xG/match

1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 23/231.72 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲13.7 shots/match

12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2316.3 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/234.09 shots/match

4.22 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/235.43 shots/match

49.6%●Possessionseason · 23/2347.2%

6.17 corners/match●Cornersseason · 23/234.48 corners/match

4.39 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/235.83 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲17%

78%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2378%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa47.5

West Ham United37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa36.7

West Ham United33.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa54.2

West Ham United20.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa42.5

West Ham United77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa80

West Ham United57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa72.5

West Ham United37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa53.1

West Ham United41.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa23 matchesWest Ham United23 matches

1.48 goals/match▲Goals scored23/231.22 goals/match

1.52 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.91 goals/match

1.51 xG/match▲Expected goals23/231.38 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots23/23▲13.7 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on target23/234.09 shots/match

49.6%●Possession23/2347.2%

6.17 corners/match●Corners23/234.48 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa12 matchesWest Ham United11 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored12/111.09 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/111.64 goals/match

1.76 xG/match▲Expected goals12/111.32 xG/match

14.9 shots/matchShots12/1115.6 shots/match

5.25 shots/match▲Shots on target12/114 shots/match

54.4%●Possession12/1147.4%

7.67 corners/match●Corners12/114.18 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1112.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.06 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jan 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4