Premier League · 2024Sat, 19 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Everton

DDLDW

0–2Full-time recap

Manchester City

LDWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Everton	Manchester City
Shots	8 shots/match	12 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.91 xG/match	2.04 xG/match▲
Possession	33%	67%●
Corners	2 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	7 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Everton: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.88 xG. Manchester City: 12 shots, 7 on target, 2.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 0.88 xG · Manchester City 2.11 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.03 goals/match	1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Everton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsEverton · Manchester City15.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Manchester City	Baseline
Shots	10.7 shots/match	15.9 shots/match	13.2 shots/match
Shots against	12.6 shots/match	9.67 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

40%PossessionEverton · Manchester City●61.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Manchester City	Baseline
Possession	40%	61.5%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Everton

2Draws

3Manchester City

26 Dec 2024Manchester City — Everton · Premier League1–1

10 Feb 2024Manchester City — Everton · Premier League2–0

27 Dec 2023Everton — Manchester City · Premier League1–3

14 May 2023Everton — Manchester City · Premier League0–3

31 Dec 2022Manchester City — Everton · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 8 · 5 too close

1.03 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/33▲1.94 goals/match

1.21 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/331.27 goals/match

1.1 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 33/33▲1.84 xG/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 33/331.33 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/33▲15.9 shots/match

12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/33▲9.67 shots/match

3.64 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 33/33▲5.88 shots/match

4.36 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/33▲3.73 shots/match

40%Possessionseason · 33/33●61.5%

4.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/33●6.52 corners/match

5.88 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 33/33▲3.42 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/337.61 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/3330%

58%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/33▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton7.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton15.8

Manchester City90.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton65

Manchester City80.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton72.5

Manchester City52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton67.5

Manchester City2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton32.5

Manchester City87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton33.8

Manchester City67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Everton33 matchesManchester City33 matches

1.03 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲1.94 goals/match

1.21 goals/matchGoals allowed33/331.27 goals/match

1.1 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲1.84 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShots33/33▲15.9 shots/match

3.64 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲5.88 shots/match

40%Possession33/33●61.5%

4.18 corners/matchCorners33/33●6.52 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls33/337.61 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Everton17 matchesManchester City17 matches

1.29 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.59 goals/match

1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed17/171.24 goals/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.53 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots17/17▲14.3 shots/match

4.12 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲5.53 shots/match

42%Possession17/17●60.3%

4.35 corners/matchCorners17/17●5.82 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls17/177.59 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4