Premier League · 2024Sat, 26 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

LWDDW

1–0Full-time recap

Everton

DLDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Everton
Shots	10 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.98 xG/match▲	0.52 xG/match
Possession	55%●	45%
Corners	10 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Chelsea: 10 shots, 7 on target, 0.92 xG. Everton: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 0.92 xG · Everton 0.43 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.4%●PossessionChelsea · Everton40.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Everton	Baseline
Possession	58.4%	40.1%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Everton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.2 shots/match▲ShotsChelsea · Everton10.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Everton	Baseline
Shots	16.2 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	13.3 shots/match
Shots against	10.5 shots/match	12.6 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Chelsea

2Draws

1Everton

22 Dec 2024Everton — Chelsea · Premier League0–0

15 Apr 2024Chelsea — Everton · Premier League6–0

10 Dec 2023Everton — Chelsea · Premier League2–0

18 Mar 2023Chelsea — Everton · Premier League2–2

6 Aug 2022Everton — Chelsea · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Everton in 1 · 5 too close

1.74 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 34/341 goals/match

1.18 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 34/341.21 goals/match

1.85 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 34/341.08 xG/match

1.3 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 34/341.26 xG/match

16.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 34/3410.6 shots/match

10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 34/3412.6 shots/match

5.97 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 34/343.62 shots/match

4.29 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 34/344.44 shots/match

58.4%●Possessionseason · 34/3440.1%

6.24 corners/match●Cornersseason · 34/344.12 corners/match

3.59 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 34/346 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3411.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/34▲29%

82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3456%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea92.5

Everton12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea85.8

Everton17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea75.8

Everton60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea77.5

Everton62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea67.5

Everton72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea72.5

Everton32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea81.2

Everton35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea34 matchesEverton34 matches

1.74 goals/match▲Goals scored34/341 goals/match

1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed34/341.21 goals/match

1.85 xG/match▲Expected goals34/341.08 xG/match

16.2 shots/match▲Shots34/3410.6 shots/match

5.97 shots/match▲Shots on target34/343.62 shots/match

58.4%●Possession34/3440.1%

6.24 corners/match●Corners34/344.12 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls34/3411.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea17 matchesEverton17 matches

1.82 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.71 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.18 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals17/170.97 xG/match

18.2 shots/match▲Shots17/179.94 shots/match

6.88 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.12 shots/match

57.2%●Possession17/1738.3%

6.65 corners/match●Corners17/173.88 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples34 / 34home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4