PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 26 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWolverhamptonLeicester City
Shots20 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals2.22 xG/match▲1.15 xG/match
Possession56%●44%
Corners4 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Emmanuel Agbadou · Wolverhampton · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRayan Aït-Nouri · Wolverhampton · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Leicester City · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRayan Aït-Nouri · Wolverhampton · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOliver Skipp · Leicester City · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRayan Aït-Nouri · Wolverhampton · 29′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBobby De Cordova-Reid · Leicester City · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBilal El Khannouss · Leicester City · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ayew · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Gomes · Wolverhampton · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAndré · Wolverhampton · 9′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 52′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 56′ · 0.08 xG · goalGonçalo Guedes · Wolverhampton · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedConor Coady · Leicester City · 18′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 27′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJoão Gomes · Wolverhampton · 82′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Gomes · Wolverhampton · 85′ · 0.15 xG · goalJørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 37′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 33′ · 0.27 xG · goalJørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 52′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Leicester City · 72′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Wolverhampton: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.97 xG. Leicester City: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Matheus Cunha · Wolverhampton · 33′Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 56′Rodrigo Gomes · Wolverhampton · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Wolverhampton 1.97 xG · Leicester City 1.18 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Leicester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Leicester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.79 goals/match1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Leicester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Leicester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsWolverhampton · Leicester City8.76 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWolverhamptonLeicester CityBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match8.76 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match17 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Wolverhampton
0Draws
3Leicester City
Leicester City — Wolverhampton · Premier League0–3
Leicester City — Wolverhampton · Premier League2–1
Wolverhampton — Leicester City · Premier League0–4
Wolverhampton — Leicester City · Premier League2–1
Leicester City — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Wolverhampton favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Leicester City in 0 · 3 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 34/340.79 goals/match
1.79 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 34/342.24 goals/match
1.2 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 34/340.86 xG/match
1.57 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 34/342 xG/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 34/348.76 shots/match
12.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 34/3417 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 34/342.88 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 34/345.91 shots/match
47.6%●Possessionseason · 34/3445.3%
3.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/34●3.71 corners/match
6.06 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 34/346.21 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3410.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/343%
85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3453%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolverhampton32.5
Leicester City22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolverhampton30.8
Leicester City4.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolverhampton35.8
Leicester City9.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolverhampton17.5
Leicester City7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolverhampton92.5
Leicester City22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolverhampton2.5
Leicester City7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolverhampton36.2
Leicester City8.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Wolverhampton34 matchesLeicester City34 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored34/340.79 goals/match
1.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed34/342.24 goals/match
1.2 xG/match▲Expected goals34/340.86 xG/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots34/348.76 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on target34/342.88 shots/match
47.6%●Possession34/3445.3%
3.5 corners/matchCorners34/34●3.71 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.1 fouls/matchFouls34/3410.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Wolverhampton17 matchesLeicester City17 matches
1.53 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.94 goals/match
1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/172.47 goals/match
1.29 xG/match▲Expected goals17/170.86 xG/match
11.1 shots/match▲Shots17/178.59 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target17/172.94 shots/match
47.8%●Possession17/1741.8%
3.47 corners/match●Corners17/173.29 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWolverhamptonLeicester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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