Premier League · 2024Tue, 22 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

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2–1Full-time recap

Aston Villa

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Aston Villa
Shots	14 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.09 xG/match	1.68 xG/match▲
Possession	62%●	38%
Corners	10 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.31 xG. Aston Villa: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.77 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.31 xG · Aston Villa 1.77 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City, Aston Villa. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.59 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.59 goals/match	1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City, Aston Villa.

3.21 days▲Rest daysManchester City · Aston Villa3.1 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Manchester City	Aston Villa	Baseline
Rest days	3.21 days	3.1 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.62 corners/match●CornersManchester City · Aston Villa6.26 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Aston Villa	Baseline
Corners	6.62 corners/match	6.26 corners/match	5.02 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Manchester City

1Draws

2Aston Villa

21 Dec 2024Aston Villa — Manchester City · Premier League2–1

3 Apr 2024Manchester City — Aston Villa · Premier League4–1

6 Dec 2023Aston Villa — Manchester City · Premier League1–0

12 Feb 2023Manchester City — Aston Villa · Premier League3–1

3 Sept 2022Aston Villa — Manchester City · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 0 · 4 too close

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 34/341.59 goals/match

1.26 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 34/341.44 goals/match

1.81 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 34/341.58 xG/match

1.34 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 34/341.33 xG/match

15.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 34/3413.1 shots/match

9.59 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 34/3412.1 shots/match

5.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 34/344.59 shots/match

3.71 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 34/344.18 shots/match

61.5%●Possessionseason · 34/3451%

6.62 corners/match●Cornersseason · 34/346.26 corners/match

3.38 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 34/344.53 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

7.65 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3410.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3418%

85%Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3482%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Aston Villa57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City89.2

Aston Villa49.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City80.8

Aston Villa59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City52.5

Aston Villa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5

Aston Villa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City82.5

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City65

Aston Villa51.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City34 matchesAston Villa34 matches

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scored34/341.59 goals/match

1.26 goals/match▲Goals allowed34/341.44 goals/match

1.81 xG/match▲Expected goals34/341.58 xG/match

15.9 shots/match▲Shots34/3413.1 shots/match

5.88 shots/match▲Shots on target34/344.59 shots/match

61.5%●Possession34/3451%

6.62 corners/match●Corners34/346.26 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.65 fouls/matchFouls34/3410.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City17 matchesAston Villa17 matches

2.29 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.35 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.71 goals/match

2.1 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.28 xG/match

17.5 shots/match▲Shots17/1710.5 shots/match

6.24 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.53 shots/match

62.8%●Possession17/1747.2%

7.41 corners/match●Corners17/175.06 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.71 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.1 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples34 / 34home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 22 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4