Premier League · 2024Sat, 19 Apr 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

LWWWW

4–1Full-time recap

Newcastle United

WWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Newcastle United
Shots	23 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.26 xG/match▲	1 xG/match
Possession	48%	52%●
Corners	7 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle United. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.61 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.61 goals/match	1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle United.

7.1 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Newcastle United2.92 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Aston Villa	Newcastle United	Baseline
Rest days	7.1 days	2.92 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Aston Villa have a visible home split

moderate

Aston Villa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.6 shots/match	13.2 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Aston Villa

0Draws

4Newcastle United

26 Dec 2024Newcastle United — Aston Villa · Premier League3–0

30 Jan 2024Aston Villa — Newcastle United · Premier League1–3

12 Aug 2023Newcastle United — Aston Villa · Premier League5–1

15 Apr 2023Aston Villa — Newcastle United · Premier League3–0

29 Oct 2022Newcastle United — Aston Villa · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 4 · 6 too close

1.61 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/33▲1.88 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/33▲1.33 goals/match

1.58 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 33/33▲1.69 xG/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 33/331.31 xG/match

13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/3313.2 shots/match

12.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 33/3312.8 shots/match

4.64 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 33/334.42 shots/match

4.12 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 33/334.52 shots/match

51.4%●Possessionseason · 33/3350.1%

6.39 corners/match●Cornersseason · 33/335.48 corners/match

4.36 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 33/335.36 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3310.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/33▲33%

82%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/3385%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa57.5

Newcastle United52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa55.8

Newcastle United55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa59.2

Newcastle United50.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa47.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa32.5

Newcastle United12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa77.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa54.4

Newcastle United38.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa33 matchesNewcastle United33 matches

1.61 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲1.88 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲1.33 goals/match

1.58 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲1.69 xG/match

13.2 shots/matchShots33/3313.2 shots/match

4.64 shots/matchShots on target33/334.42 shots/match

51.4%●Possession33/3350.1%

6.39 corners/match●Corners33/335.48 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls33/3310.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa17 matchesNewcastle United17 matches

1.82 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.59 goals/match

1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.47 goals/match

1.89 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.64 xG/match

15.6 shots/match▲Shots17/1711.9 shots/match

5.65 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.94 shots/match

54.9%●Possession17/1751.1%

7.47 corners/match●Corners17/175.24 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls17/179.71 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.92 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Apr 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4