Premier League · 2024Wed, 16 Apr 2025, 18:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

LWWWW

5–0Full-time recap

Crystal Palace

WWDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Crystal Palace
Shots	14 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.54 xG/match	2 xG/match▲
Possession	60%●	40%
Corners	5 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle United, Crystal Palace. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.91 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3 goals/match	1.91 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle United, Crystal Palace.

3.12 days▲Rest daysNewcastle United · Crystal Palace4.29 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Newcastle United	Crystal Palace	Baseline
Rest days	3.12 days	4.29 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Newcastle United

3Draws

1Crystal Palace

30 Nov 2024Crystal Palace — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1

24 Apr 2024Crystal Palace — Newcastle United · Premier League2–0

21 Oct 2023Newcastle United — Crystal Palace · Premier League4–0

21 Jan 2023Crystal Palace — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0

3 Sept 2022Newcastle United — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 1 · 5 too close

1.91 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/321.28 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 32/321.41 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 32/321.54 xG/match

1.28 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 32/321.36 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/3213.4 shots/match

12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/3212.8 shots/match

4.47 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/32▲4.78 shots/match

4.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/324.19 shots/match

50%●Possessionseason · 32/3243.6%

5.44 corners/match●Cornersseason · 32/324.53 corners/match

5.31 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/325.59 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3211.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

34%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/3228%

84%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3278%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United52.5

Crystal Palace17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United56.7

Crystal Palace54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United60

Crystal Palace55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United67.5

Crystal Palace87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United12.5

Crystal Palace37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United62.5

Crystal Palace42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United39.4

Crystal Palace52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United32 matchesCrystal Palace32 matches

1.91 goals/match▲Goals scored32/321.28 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed32/321.41 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goals32/321.54 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots32/3213.4 shots/match

4.47 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲4.78 shots/match

50%●Possession32/3243.6%

5.44 corners/match●Corners32/324.53 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls32/3211.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United16 matchesCrystal Palace16 matches

2.19 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.38 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.38 goals/match

1.75 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.41 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1612.3 shots/match

4.94 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.63 shots/match

49%●Possession16/1643.4%

5.75 corners/match●Corners16/164.38 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.29 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 16 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4