PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Mon, 14 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

Fulham

WLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthFulham
Shots12 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.46 xG/match▲1.07 xG/match
Possession41%59%●
Corners6 corners/match9 corners/match●
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Evanilson · Bournemouth · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoachim Andersen · Fulham · 20′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSaša Lukić · Fulham · 32′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTom Cairney · Fulham · 75′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 32′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 18′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLewis Cook · Bournemouth · 27′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRyan Sessegnon · Fulham · 32′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 66′ · 0.08 xG · on targetSaša Lukić · Fulham · 70′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTyler Adams · Bournemouth · 27′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 31′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 1′ · 0.12 xG · goalRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 34′ · 0.12 xG · on targetRyan Sessegnon · Fulham · 32′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedRyan Sessegnon · Fulham · 37′ · 0.18 xG · on targetDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 32′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedTyler Adams · Bournemouth · 55′ · 0.32 xG · on targetEvanilson · Bournemouth · 17′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bournemouth: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.49 xG. Fulham: 12 shots, 7 on target, 1.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 1′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 1.49 xG · Fulham 1.07 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five shots average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fulham's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Bournemouth
2Draws
1Fulham
Fulham — Bournemouth · Premier League2–2
Fulham — Bournemouth · Premier League3–1
Bournemouth — Fulham · Premier League3–0
Bournemouth — Fulham · Premier League2–1
Fulham — Bournemouth · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Fulham in 4 · 3 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/321.47 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 32/321.34 goals/match
1.84 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 32/321.32 xG/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 32/32▲1.2 xG/match
15.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3213.4 shots/match
13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/32▲11.3 shots/match
5.59 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 32/324.63 shots/match
4.81 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/32▲4.09 shots/match
47.3%Possessionseason · 32/32●52.4%
6.19 corners/match●Cornersseason · 32/325.41 corners/match
5.09 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/32▲4.59 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3211.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/3216%
81%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3284%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth27.5
Fulham62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth76.7
Fulham50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth45
Fulham67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth97.5
Fulham47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth97.5
Fulham45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth70
Fulham57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth83.1
Fulham53.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth32 matchesFulham32 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored32/321.47 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed32/321.34 goals/match
1.84 xG/match▲Expected goals32/321.32 xG/match
15.8 shots/match▲Shots32/3213.4 shots/match
5.59 shots/match▲Shots on target32/324.63 shots/match
47.3%Possession32/32●52.4%
6.19 corners/match●Corners32/325.41 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.6 fouls/matchFouls32/3211.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth16 matchesFulham16 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.38 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.25 goals/match
1.8 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.42 xG/match
16.9 shots/match▲Shots16/1612.8 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.06 shots/match
47.3%Possession16/16●51.6%
6.13 corners/match●Corners16/165.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.7 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.25 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 14 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthFulham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Bournemouth vs Fulham — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath