Premier League · 2024Sun, 13 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

WLWWW

4–1Full-time recap

Manchester United

WDWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Manchester United
Shots	13 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	2.17 xG/match▲	0.72 xG/match
Possession	48%	52%●
Corners	7 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 13 shots, 6 on target, 2.13 xG. Manchester United: 9 shots, 5 on target, 0.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.13 xG · Manchester United 0.71 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.19 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Newcastle United

1Draws

1Manchester United

30 Dec 2024Manchester United — Newcastle United · Premier League0–2

15 May 2024Manchester United — Newcastle United · Premier League3–2

2 Dec 2023Newcastle United — Manchester United · Premier League1–0

2 Apr 2023Newcastle United — Manchester United · Premier League2–0

16 Oct 2022Manchester United — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester United in 2 · 5 too close

1.81 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/321.19 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/321.41 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 31/321.33 xG/match

1.26 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 31/321.52 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/3213.3 shots/match

12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/32▲11.4 shots/match

4.39 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/324.56 shots/match

4.39 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/324.22 shots/match

49.7%Possessionseason · 31/32●52.7%

5.45 corners/match●Cornersseason · 31/325.03 corners/match

5.35 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/32▲4.75 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3210.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3228%

84%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3263%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United47.5

Manchester United72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United54.2

Manchester United44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United59.2

Manchester United59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United67.5

Manchester United42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United12.5

Manchester United27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United62.5

Manchester United52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United38.8

Manchester United46.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United31 matchesManchester United32 matches

1.81 goals/match▲Goals scored31/321.19 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/321.41 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goals31/321.33 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots31/3213.3 shots/match

4.39 shots/matchShots on target31/324.56 shots/match

49.7%Possession31/32●52.7%

5.45 corners/match●Corners31/325.03 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls31/3210.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United15 matchesManchester United16 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored15/161.06 goals/match

1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed15/161.25 goals/match

1.76 xG/match▲Expected goals15/161.16 xG/match

14.7 shots/match▲Shots15/1612.7 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target15/164.5 shots/match

48.3%Possession15/16●53.3%

5.8 corners/match●Corners15/164.81 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1610.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples31 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Apr 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4