Premier League · 2024Mon, 21 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Tottenham Hotspur

DLLWL

1–2Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Nottingham Forest
Shots	22 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.14 xG/match▲	0.48 xG/match
Possession	70%●	30%
Corners	7 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Tottenham Hotspur: 22 shots, 6 on target, 2.20 xG. Nottingham Forest: 4 shots, 3 on target, 0.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Tottenham Hotspur 2.20 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.45 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Tottenham Hotspur's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Tottenham Hotspur's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Tottenham Hotspur's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.85 goals/match	1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.2%●PossessionTottenham Hotspur · Nottingham Forest39.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	57.2%	39.4%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Tottenham Hotspur

0Draws

1Nottingham Forest

26 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League1–0

7 Apr 2024Tottenham Hotspur — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–1

15 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–2

11 Mar 2023Tottenham Hotspur — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–1

28 Aug 2022Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Tottenham Hotspur favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 3 · 4 too close

1.85 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 33/331.61 goals/match

1.55 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/33▲1.18 goals/match

1.66 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 33/331.23 xG/match

1.65 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 33/33▲1.3 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 33/3312.2 shots/match

12.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 33/3314.2 shots/match

5.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 33/334.42 shots/match

4.58 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/334.76 shots/match

57.2%●Possessionseason · 33/3339.4%

7 corners/match●Cornersseason · 33/334.03 corners/match

5.12 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 33/336.45 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3310.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/33▲39%

79%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/3382%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Tottenham Hotspur82.5

Nottingham Forest2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Tottenham Hotspur76.7

Nottingham Forest41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Tottenham Hotspur40.8

Nottingham Forest47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Tottenham Hotspur27.5

Nottingham Forest92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur77.5

Nottingham Forest22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur97.5

Nottingham Forest17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Tottenham Hotspur81.2

Nottingham Forest26.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Tottenham Hotspur33 matchesNottingham Forest33 matches

1.85 goals/match▲Goals scored33/331.61 goals/match

1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲1.18 goals/match

1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals33/331.23 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shots33/3312.2 shots/match

5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target33/334.42 shots/match

57.2%●Possession33/3339.4%

7 corners/match●Corners33/334.03 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls33/3310.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Tottenham Hotspur17 matchesNottingham Forest17 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.71 goals/match

1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed17/171.65 goals/match

1.83 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.22 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots17/1712.2 shots/match

5.71 shots/match▲Shots on target17/174.29 shots/match

56.4%●Possession17/1737.1%

7.65 corners/match●Corners17/174 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.25 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.21 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 21 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4