PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Tottenham Hotspur 1–2 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nottingham Forest won 1–2.

Shots
224
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
2.140.48
Possession
70%30%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nottingham Forest beat Tottenham Hotspur 2–1. Recorded in this match (Tottenham Hotspur – Nottingham Forest): shots 22–4, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 2.14–0.48, possession 70%–30%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Tottenham Hotspur's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Tottenham Hotspur's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.85 goals/match1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.2% ●PossessionTottenham Hotspur · Nottingham Forest39.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTottenham HotspurNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession57.2%39.4%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots4 shotsTottenham Hotspur 22 shots, Nottingham Forest 4 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsTottenham Hotspur 6 shots, Nottingham Forest 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.14 xG0.48 xGTottenham Hotspur 2.14 xG, Nottingham Forest 0.48 xG
  • Possession70%30%Tottenham Hotspur 70%, Nottingham Forest 30%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerTottenham Hotspur 7 corners, Nottingham Forest 1 corner
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsTottenham Hotspur 11 fouls, Nottingham Forest 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham Hotspur · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBen Davies · Tottenham Hotspur · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 4′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMathys Tel · Tottenham Hotspur · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWilson Odobert · Tottenham Hotspur · 20′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDejan Kulusevski · Tottenham Hotspur · 24′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKevin Danso · Tottenham Hotspur · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · Tottenham Hotspur · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedElliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 5′ · 0.03 xG · goalPedro Porro · Tottenham Hotspur · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · Tottenham Hotspur · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · Tottenham Hotspur · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPape Matar Sarr · Tottenham Hotspur · 54′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDejan Kulusevski · Tottenham Hotspur · 63′ · 0.07 xG · on targetRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 83′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDjed Spence · Tottenham Hotspur · 84′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 75′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 80′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 87′ · 0.10 xG · goalChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 17′ · 0.11 xG · goalCristian Romero · Tottenham Hotspur · 22′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 44′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · Tottenham Hotspur · 40′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 66′ · 0.18 xG · on targetMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 55′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 41′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Tottenham Hotspur: 22 shots, 6 on target, 2.20 xG. Nottingham Forest: 4 shots, 3 on target, 0.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Richarlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 87′Elliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 5′Chris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 17′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Tottenham Hotspur 2.20 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.45 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Tottenham Hotspur
0Draws
1Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League1–0
Tottenham Hotspur — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–1
Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–2
Tottenham Hotspur — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–1
Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Tottenham Hotspur favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Tottenham Hotspur33 matchesNottingham Forest33 matches
1.85 goals/match ▲Goals scored33/331.61 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 1.18 goals/match
1.66 xG/match ▲Expected goals33/331.23 xG/match
14.2 shots/match ▲Shots33/3312.2 shots/match
5.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/334.42 shots/match
57.2% ●Possession33/3339.4%
7 corners/match ●Corners33/334.03 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls33/3310.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 21 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTottenham HotspurNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headTottenham Hotspur — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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