Sport Recife vs Fortaleza — Stats & Match Analysis

Serie B · 2026Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC

Sport Recife

LWLWW

vsPre-match analysis

Fortaleza

DWDDW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored: 1.381.16
Expected goals: 1.391.27
Shots: 13.914.3
Possession: 54.5%49.5%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: fortaleza's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Alongside it: fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.16 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.16 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortaleza have a visible away split

moderate

Fortaleza's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.6 shots/match	14.3 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sport Recife favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 6 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sport Recife32 matchesFortaleza32 matches

1.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored32/321.16 goals/match

1.06 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲ 0.84 goals/match

1.39 xG/match ▲Expected goals31/321.27 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShots31/3114.3 shots/match

4.26 shots/matchShots on target31/314.23 shots/match

54.5% ●Possession31/3149.5%

4.84 corners/matchCorners31/31● 5.39 corners/match

13.4 fouls/matchFouls31/3114.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Sport Recife

1Draws

2Fortaleza

28 Jun 2026Fortaleza — Sport Recife · Serie B2–1

27 Sept 2025Fortaleza — Sport Recife · Serie A1–0

26 Apr 2025Sport Recife — Fortaleza · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness10 daysfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match ranking xG per match ranking Shots per match ranking

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Season

What the record shows