PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellín 1–2 Rionegro Águilas Doradas · Primera A

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Rionegro Águilas Doradas won 1–2.

Shots
219
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
2.490.39
Possession
71%29%

Full time

What the match recorded

Águilas Doradas beat Independiente Medellin 2–1. Recorded in this match (Independiente Medellin – Águilas Doradas): shots 21–9, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 2.49–0.39, possession 71%–29%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Águilas Doradas have a visible away split

moderate

Águilas Doradas's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.33 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.33 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Águilas Doradas show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Águilas Doradas's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.6 shots/match ▲ShotsIndependiente Medellin · Águilas Doradas10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricIndependiente MedellinÁguilas DoradasBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Independiente Medellin.

7.79 days ▲Rest daysIndependiente Medellin · Águilas Doradas6.98 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricIndependiente MedellinÁguilas DoradasBaseline
Rest days7.79 days6.98 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots9 shotsIndependiente Medellín 21 shots, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 9 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsIndependiente Medellín 7 shots, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.49 xG0.39 xGIndependiente Medellín 2.49 xG, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 0.39 xG
  • Possession71%29%Independiente Medellín 71%, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 29%
  • Corners10 corners2 cornersIndependiente Medellín 10 corners, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls7 foulsIndependiente Medellín 10 fouls, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards3 cardsIndependiente Medellín 5 cards, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 3 cards
  • Passes461 passes200 passesIndependiente Medellín 461 passes, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 200 passes
  • Pass accuracy89%70%Independiente Medellín 89%, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 70%
  • Shots inside box13 shots3 shotsIndependiente Medellín 13 shots, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 3 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks2 blocksIndependiente Medellín 4 blocks, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves6 savesIndependiente Medellín 2 saves, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 6 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideIndependiente Medellín 0 offsides, Rionegro Águilas Doradas 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Rionegro Águilas Doradas in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín19 matchesRionegro Águilas Doradas19 matches
1.37 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/191.05 goals/match
1.26 goals/matchGoals allowed19/191.32 goals/match
1.21 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/140.83 xG/match
14.6 shots/match ▲Shots19/1910.8 shots/match
4.79 shots/match ▲Shots on target19/193.21 shots/match
53.3% ●Possession19/1946.1%
5.58 corners/match ●Corners19/193.89 corners/match
4.38 cards/matchCards8/82.63 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 4 May 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínRionegro Águilas Doradas
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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