PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Cincuentenario

Rionegro Águilas Doradas 2–2 Once Caldas · Primera A

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Rionegro Águilas Doradas and Once Caldas drew 2–2.

Shots
1410
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
1.350.64
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Águilas Doradas and Once Caldas drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Águilas Doradas – Once Caldas): shots 14–10, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.35–0.64, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Once Caldas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Once Caldas's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Once Caldas have a visible away split

moderate

Once Caldas's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots10 shotsRionegro Águilas Doradas 14 shots, Once Caldas 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsRionegro Águilas Doradas 5 shots, Once Caldas 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.35 xG0.64 xGRionegro Águilas Doradas 1.35 xG, Once Caldas 0.64 xG
  • Possession50%50%Rionegro Águilas Doradas 50%, Once Caldas 50%
  • Corners4 corners0 cornersRionegro Águilas Doradas 4 corners, Once Caldas 0 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls16 foulsRionegro Águilas Doradas 18 fouls, Once Caldas 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards5 cardsRionegro Águilas Doradas 4 cards, Once Caldas 5 cards
  • Passes332 passes358 passesRionegro Águilas Doradas 332 passes, Once Caldas 358 passes
  • Pass accuracy79%80%Rionegro Águilas Doradas 79%, Once Caldas 80%
  • Shots inside box6 shots6 shotsRionegro Águilas Doradas 6 shots, Once Caldas 6 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks1 blockRionegro Águilas Doradas 3 blocks, Once Caldas 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves4 savesRionegro Águilas Doradas 3 saves, Once Caldas 4 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesRionegro Águilas Doradas 1 offside, Once Caldas 2 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rionegro Águilas Doradas favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Once Caldas in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rionegro Águilas Doradas18 matchesOnce Caldas18 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.22 goals/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goals13/16▲ 1.01 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 13.2 shots/match
3.17 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲ 5.17 shots/match
47.1%Possession18/18● 54.4%
4 corners/matchCorners18/18● 4.94 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/63 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1810 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 27 Apr 2026, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRionegro Águilas DoradasOnce Caldas
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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